Mel Kiper· Feb 27, 2026
Kiper's latest mock draft, as relayed on the show, has Caleb Downs second to the Jets, Karnell Tate sixth to the Browns, Spencer Fano fifth to the Giants, Mauigoa 11th to the Dolphins, Jeremiah Love ninth to the Chiefs, Ty Simpson 20th to the Steelers, plus Makai Lemmon, Jordan Tyson and Denzel Boston in the first round.
“Mel Kiper's latest mock has him landing in Kansas City with the ninth pick.”
said on air, transcribed by us · NFL Live (podcast) · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 9 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 18 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 9 have settled, averaging 81 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick11They said
10What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaMiami DolphinsFeb 27, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 11
“Just outside the top 10, Francisco or CC Maui Noah. Mel has him going 11 to the Dolphins”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 60 against a shuffle’s 50+10 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 10
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 60
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateCleveland BrownsFeb 27, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6
“the highest drafted wideout in Mel Kiper Junior's mock draft going six to the Browns”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 50
- Mock Draft PicksDenzel BostonBuffalo BillsFeb 27, 2026
Denzel Boston to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“followed by Jordan Tyson to the Ravens, Denzel Boston to the Bills”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Denzel Boston
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 39
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 50
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsNew York JetsFeb 27, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 2
“he is the number two prospect or at least going number two to the jets, excuse me, in Melchheimer Junior's latest mock”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 50
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonPittsburgh SteelersFeb 27, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 20
“Mel Kiper had him going 20 to the Steelers in his latest mock.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 50
- Mock Draft PicksMakai LemonNew Orleans SaintsFeb 27, 2026
Makai Lemon to be picked “in the top 10 to the Saints” (picks 1–10)
“He's one of four wide receivers going in the first round of Mel's draft with USC's Makai Lemmon also in the top 10 to the Saints”
Close · 65Scored 64.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Makai Lemon
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 64.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 64.84
- predicted pick:
- in the top 10 to the Saints (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 50
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonBaltimore RavensFeb 27, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“He's one of four wide receivers going in the first round of Mel's draft with... followed by Jordan Tyson to the Ravens”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 50
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoNew York GiantsFeb 27, 2026
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 5
“a key piece of Mel Kiper Junior's mock draft, and there are six in total going in the first round led by Utah's Spencer Fano going fifth overall to the Giants”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 50
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveKansas City ChiefsFeb 27, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 9
“Mel Kiper's latest mock has him landing in Kansas City with the ninth pick.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 50 against a shuffle’s 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 50
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Dillon ThienemanClose · 57Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.