Bill WhalenSep 26, 2024
Whalen said Republican Steve Garvey has no chance against Adam Schiff in California's Senate race, citing the state's two-to-one Democratic registration advantage and the fact that no Republican has won an open Senate seat there since 1982.
Said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics PodcastHear the original
100Hit · out of 100
Adam B. Schiff wonWhat happenedcertified result
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty
What Bill Whalen said
Steve Garvey cannot beat Adam Schiff, and it's just a simple function of numbers.
- Where it was said
- RealClearPolitics Podcast
- The episode
- Vice President Kamala Harris’ First Solo Network News Interview, New Poll Results Showing Growing Democratic Strength in Texas, and Harris’ Decision to Visit the US/Mexican Border Tomorrow
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 26, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Adam Schiff to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in California
What happenedAdam B. Schiff woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.05difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-ca
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Adam B. Schiff
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in California
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Adam B. Schiff
- days before the vote when called:
- 39
- difficulty:
- 1.05
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.