Cynthia Frelund#45 of 87 NFL pundits · Jul 21, 2025
Freeland shared touchdown and yardage projections from their fantasy model, giving Marvin Harrison Jr. eight touchdowns to Malik Nabers' seven, Courtland Sutton eight to CeeDee Lamb's seven, David Montgomery seven rushing scores to DeAndre Swift's six, and about 400 rushing yards for Drake Maye; they also called Hunter Henry a sneaky favorite tight end pick.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
0 of 7calls landed3 close calls · 4 misses · all settled
37.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls
38.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
7 of 7Settlednone still waiting
What Cynthia Frelund said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromCourtland Sutton, red zone threat... Ceede Lamb more catches, Courtland Sutton, more touchdowns, eight to seven.
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- GMFB Monday Hour 2: Dan Campbell speaks, Chiefs Outlook, and Season Projections
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJul 21, 2025
- GradedAug 7, 2026
- 1Courtland Sutton to record 8 receiving tds“Ceede Lamb more catches, Courtland Sutton, more touchdowns, eight to seven.”
- 2Malik Nabers to record 7 receiving tds“it's eight for Harrison Junior and seven for neighbors. So it's not like so different”
- 3Marvin Harrison Jr. to record 8 receiving tds“Now, by the way, it's eight for Harrison Junior and seven for neighbors.”
- 4CeeDee Lamb to record 7 receiving tds“Ceede Lamb more catches, Courtland Sutton, more touchdowns, eight to seven.”
- 5David Montgomery to record 7 rushing tds“Seven to six I have. David Montgomery was one. (question: David Montgomery or DeAndre Swift, who's going to have more rushing touchdowns?)”
- 6D'Andre Swift to record 6 rushing tds“Seven to six I have. David Montgomery was one.”
- 7Drake Maye to record 400 rushing yards“I think Drake May himself uses his legs for about four hundred yards.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton to record 8 receiving tds1 | Player Season Numbers | 7 | 75 | 62.84 | +24.33 | |
| Malik Nabers to record 7 receiving tds2 | Player Season Numbers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. to record 8 receiving tds3 | Player Season Numbers | 4 | 0 | 40.37 | −80.74 | |
| CeeDee Lamb to record 7 receiving tds4 | Player Season Numbers | 3 | 0 | 27.68 | −55.36 | |
| David Montgomery to record 7 rushing tds5 | Player Season Numbers | 8 | 75 | 92.38 | −34.75 | |
| D'Andre Swift to record 6 rushing tds6 | Player Season Numbers | 9 | 33.33 | 18.16 | +30.35 | |
| Drake Maye to record 400 rushing yards7 | Player Season Numbers | 450 | 77.78 | 25.8 | +103.95 | |
| 7 calls · 3 close calls · 4 misses · all settled | 37.3 | 38.2 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 7 player season numbers — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 37.3 out of 100, against 38.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
receiving tds8They said
7What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
1Player Season NumbersCourtland SuttonDenver Broncos
Courtland Sutton to record 8 receiving tds
What happened7called 875Close · naive 62.8475this call−62.84a naive guess=12.16better than naive×2difficulty=+24.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 5.7
- skill:
- 24.33
- what happened:
- 7
- player:
- Courtland Sutton
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 62.84
- they said:
- 8
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 8
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
2Player Season NumbersMalik Nabers
Malik Nabers to record 7 receiving tds
What happened2called 70Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 5.2
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 2
- player:
- Malik Nabers
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 7
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 7
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
3Player Season NumbersMarvin Harrison Jr.Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. to record 8 receiving tds
What happened4called 80Miss · naive 40.370this call−40.37a naive guess=−40.37worse than naive×2difficulty=−80.74skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 5.7
- skill:
- −80.74
- what happened:
- 4
- player:
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 40.37
- they said:
- 8
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 8
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
4Player Season NumbersCeeDee LambDallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb to record 7 receiving tds
What happened3called 70Miss · naive 27.680this call−27.68a naive guess=−27.68worse than naive×2difficulty=−55.36skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 4.7
- skill:
- −55.36
- what happened:
- 3
- player:
- CeeDee Lamb
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 27.68
- they said:
- 7
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 6
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
5Player Season NumbersDavid MontgomeryDetroit Lions
David Montgomery to record 7 rushing tds
What happened8called 775Close · naive 92.3875this call−92.38a naive guess=−17.38worse than naive×2difficulty=−34.75skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 8.32
- skill:
- −34.75
- what happened:
- 8
- player:
- David Montgomery
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 92.38
- they said:
- 7
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 12
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.63
- zero at percent out:
- 50
6Player Season NumbersD'Andre Swift
D'Andre Swift to record 6 rushing tds
What happened9called 633.33Miss · naive 18.1633.33this call−18.16a naive guess=15.17better than naive×2difficulty=+30.35skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 5.32
- skill:
- 30.35
- what happened:
- 9
- player:
- D'Andre Swift
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 18.16
- they said:
- 6
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 6
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.63
- zero at percent out:
- 50
7Player Season NumbersDrake MayeNew England Patriots
Drake Maye to record 400 rushing yards
What happened450called 40077.78Close · naive 25.877.78this call−25.8a naive guess=51.98better than naive×2difficulty=+103.95skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 283.05
- skill:
- 103.95
- what happened:
- 450
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 77.78
- baseline:
- 25.8
- they said:
- 400
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 421
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 145.1
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
37.3naive 38.2
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Andrew Erickson · Player Season Numbers · James Cook · Close 67
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Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Chris Broussard · Player Season Numbers · Myles Garrett · Hit 92
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