Cynthia Frelund· Jul 21, 2025
Freeland shared touchdown and yardage projections from her fantasy model, giving Marvin Harrison Jr. eight touchdowns to Malik Nabers' seven, Courtland Sutton eight to CeeDee Lamb's seven, David Montgomery seven rushing scores to DeAndre Swift's six, and about 400 rushing yards for Drake Maye; she also called Hunter Henry a sneaky favorite tight end pick.
“Courtland Sutton, red zone threat... Ceede Lamb more catches, Courtland Sutton, more touchdowns, eight to seven.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
7 checkable claims — 7 player season numbers — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 37.3 out of 100, against 38.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
receiving tds8They said
7What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Courtland Sutton to record 8 receiving tds
“Ceede Lamb more catches, Courtland Sutton, more touchdowns, eight to seven.”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 62.84+24.33 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 5.7
- skill:
- 24.33
- what happened:
- 7
- player:
- Courtland Sutton
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 62.84
- predicted:
- 8
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 8
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Player Season NumbersMalik NabersJul 21, 2025
Malik Nabers to record 7 receiving tds
“it's eight for Harrison Junior and seven for neighbors. So it's not like so different”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 5.2
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 2
- player:
- Malik Nabers
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 7
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 7
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Marvin Harrison Jr. to record 8 receiving tds
“Now, by the way, it's eight for Harrison Junior and seven for neighbors.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 40.37-80.74 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 5.7
- skill:
- -80.74
- what happened:
- 4
- player:
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 40.37
- predicted:
- 8
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 8
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Player Season NumbersCeeDee LambDallas CowboysJul 21, 2025
CeeDee Lamb to record 7 receiving tds
“Ceede Lamb more catches, Courtland Sutton, more touchdowns, eight to seven.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 27.68-55.36 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 4.7
- skill:
- -55.36
- what happened:
- 3
- player:
- CeeDee Lamb
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 27.68
- predicted:
- 7
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 6
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
David Montgomery to record 7 rushing tds
“Seven to six I have. David Montgomery was one. (question: David Montgomery or DeAndre Swift, who's going to have more rushing touchdowns?)”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 92.38-34.75 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 8.32
- skill:
- -34.75
- what happened:
- 8
- player:
- David Montgomery
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 92.38
- predicted:
- 7
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 12
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.63
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Player Season NumbersD'Andre SwiftJul 21, 2025
D'Andre Swift to record 6 rushing tds
“Seven to six I have. David Montgomery was one.”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 18.16+30.35 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 5.32
- skill:
- 30.35
- what happened:
- 9
- player:
- D'Andre Swift
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 18.16
- predicted:
- 6
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 6
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.63
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Drake Maye to record 400 rushing yards
“I think Drake May himself uses his legs for about four hundred yards.”
Close · 78Scored 77.78a naive guess scored 25.8+103.95 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 283.05
- skill:
- 103.95
- what happened:
- 450
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 77.78
- baseline:
- 25.8
- predicted:
- 400
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 421
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 145.1
- zero at percent out:
- 50
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Denver BroncosHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayer Season Numbers · Tyler ShoughMiss · 4Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Chris BroussardPlayer Season Numbers · Lamar JacksonMiss · 0Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 100Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 84Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among his weekly picks he expects the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee.
- Shannon SharpePlayer Season Numbers · T.J. WattMiss · 0On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season.
- Rich EisenPlayer Season Numbers · Micah ParsonsClose · 56Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.