Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 23, 2025
Eisen defended the Chiefs (AFC West title, double-digit wins), predicted nearly all of last year's playoff teams return, backed Washington bouncing back, said Sam Darnold keeps their job, projected a 2,000-yard season for Puka Nacua, and forecast the Bengals back in the playoffs with the Steelers around 10-7.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
What Rich Eisen said
Sam Darnold is not getting benched in 2025.
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- Last Year's Super Bowl Blowout Loss Marked the End of the Chiefs’ Dynasty
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJun 23, 2025
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division Winners | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Playoff Picks | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Season Win Totals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player Season Numbers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| All | 10 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
How each call scored
18 checkable claims — 11 playoff picks, 3 depth chart calls, 2 season win totals, 1 division winner and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 18 have settled, averaging 60.6 out of 100, against 59.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Division Winners1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“Will they win the AFC West again this year? I think that's more likely than not.”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Depth Chart Calls3 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Michael Penix Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart
“And Michael Penaics, obviously, is just he's gonna have his first ever week one start.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Michael Penix Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Sam Darnold to be 1st on the depth chart
“Sam Darnold is not getting benched in 2025.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SEA
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“if you're bubbling on the hot seat and Daniel Jones is your quarterback as it's gonna be for Shane Steichen in Indianapolis”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Playoff Picks6 hits · 5 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- PHI
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Missed the playoffs0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Missed the playoffs0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Missed the playoffs0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Missed the playoffs0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DET
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
“I think the Bengals are gonna make the playoffs this year.”
Missed the playoffs0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- skill:
- −200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Made the playoffs100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Season Win Totals1 hit · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 10 wins
“And the Steelers, sir, as you know, book them for ten and seven. You know what I mean? Maybe eleven and six.”
10called 10100Hit100 − 85 naive = 15 × 2 difficulty = +30 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 85
- they said:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 10 wins
“Will they actually have double digit wins this year? That's more likely than not.”
6called 1020Miss20 − 0 naive = 20 × 2 difficulty = +40 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Player Season Numbers1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
Puka Nacua to record 2,000 receiving yards
“I'll agree with you, and I'll give you one... I'm going Puka Nakua... You're down with the 2,000 yard wide receiver?”
1,715called 2,00071.5Close71.5 − 0 naive = 71.5 × 2 difficulty = +143 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 669.87
- skill:
- 143
- what happened:
- 1715
- player:
- Puka Nacua
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 71.5
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 2000
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 990
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 349.73
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Who this take is about
Kansas City Chiefs, Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Puka Nacua, Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Chicago Bears · Hit 100
Brockman argued the Eagles' defense is the NFL's best and will drag a mediocre offense to the NFC championship, that the NFC North sends only two teams to the playoffs with the Bears among them, that the Rams are the league's best team, that a healthy Brock Purdy makes the 49ers an NFC threat who will beat the Saints and Falcons, and that the Panthers win the NFC South.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Brockman argued the Seahawks are the NFC's best team and will land the No. 1 seed, that Jacksonville will reach 11 wins and steal the AFC South from Indianapolis, that JJ McCarthy will lead the Vikings to the playoffs, and that Matthew Stafford will be an MVP finalist.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · San Francisco 49ers · Hit 100
Brockman doubled down that the Ravens will win the AFC North, named Jonathan Taylor the NFL's MVP, locked in their seven NFC playoff teams with the Eagles as the NFC East's lone qualifier, and predicted Justin Fields will be the Jets' starting quarterback in 2026.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Carolina Panthers · Hit 100
Brockman argued the Broncos win the AFC West and a playoff game, that either the Colts or Patriots will be the AFC's No. 1 seed, that the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, that the Bears win the NFC North, and that the Panthers make the playoffs.