Rich Eisen· Jun 23, 2025
Eisen defended the Chiefs (AFC West title, double-digit wins), predicted nearly all of last year's playoff teams return, backed Washington bouncing back, said Sam Darnold keeps his job, projected a 2,000-yard season for Puka Nacua, and forecast the Bengals back in the playoffs with the Steelers around 10-7.
“Sam Darnold is not getting benched in 2025.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
18 checkable claims — 11 playoff picks, 3 depth chart calls, 2 season win totals, 1 division winner and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 18 have settled, averaging 60.6 out of 100, against 59.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
18 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersKansas City ChiefsJun 23, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“Will they win the AFC West again this year? I think that's more likely than not.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Michael Penix Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart
“And Michael Penaics, obviously, is just he's gonna have his first ever week one start.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Michael Penix Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksPhiladelphia EaglesJun 23, 2025
Philadelphia Eagles to make the playoffs
“I think the eagles make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PHI
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsPittsburgh SteelersJun 23, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 10 wins
“And the Steelers, sir, as you know, book them for ten and seven. You know what I mean? Maybe eleven and six.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 85+30 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- 30
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksKansas City ChiefsJun 23, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“The Chiefs make it again.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksBuffalo BillsJun 23, 2025
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“So I will say the Bills make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksHouston TexansJun 23, 2025
Houston Texans to make the playoffs
“The Texans make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles ChargersJun 23, 2025
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“I think the chargers make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersJun 23, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“The Bucks make it again.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsSam DarnoldSeattle SeahawksJun 23, 2025
Sam Darnold to be 1st on the depth chart
“Sam Darnold is not getting benched in 2025.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SEA
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensJun 23, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“The Ravens make it again.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksDetroit LionsJun 23, 2025
Detroit Lions to make the playoffs
“The Lions make it again.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DET
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles RamsJun 23, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“The rams make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksCincinnati BengalsJun 23, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
“I think the Bengals are gonna make the playoffs this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksDenver BroncosJun 23, 2025
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“Denver could make it again.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsKansas City ChiefsJun 23, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 10 wins
“Will they actually have double digit wins this year? That's more likely than not.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- naive:
- 11.75
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Player Season NumbersPuka NacuaLos Angeles RamsJun 23, 2025
Puka Nacua to record 2,000 receiving yards
“I'll agree with you, and I'll give you one... I'm going Puka Nakua... You're down with the 2,000 yard wide receiver?”
Close · 72Scored 71.5a naive guess scored 0+143 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 669.87
- skill:
- 143
- what happened:
- 1715
- player:
- Puka Nacua
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 71.5
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 2000
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 990
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 349.73
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Depth Chart CallsDaniel JonesIndianapolis ColtsJun 23, 2025
Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“if you're bubbling on the hot seat and Daniel Jones is your quarterback as it's gonna be for Shane Steichen in Indianapolis”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Chicago BearsHit · 100Brockman argued the Eagles' defense is the NFL's best and will drag a mediocre offense to the NFC championship, that the NFC North sends only two teams to the playoffs with the Bears among them, that the Rams are the league's best team, that a healthy Brock Purdy makes the 49ers an NFC threat who will beat the Saints and Falcons, and that the Panthers win the NFC South.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Brockman argued the Seahawks are the NFC's best team and will land the No. 1 seed, that Jacksonville will reach 11 wins and steal the AFC South from Indianapolis, that JJ McCarthy will lead the Vikings to the playoffs, and that Matthew Stafford will be an MVP finalist.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Brockman doubled down that the Ravens will win the AFC North, named Jonathan Taylor the NFL's MVP, locked in his seven NFC playoff teams with the Eagles as the NFC East's lone qualifier, and predicted Justin Fields will be the Jets' starting quarterback in 2026.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Brockman argued the Broncos win the AFC West and a playoff game, that either the Colts or Patriots will be the AFC's No. 1 seed, that the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, that the Bears win the NFC North, and that the Panthers make the playoffs.