Erick-Woods Erickson· Nov 5, 2024

On Election Day morning Erickson said Trump's coattails might pull Kari Lake to victory in Arizona, that Eric Hovde in Wisconsin and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania could win their Senate races, and that he was increasingly convinced Trump would carry Nevada.

“Y’all, I cannot believe I am writing this, but Trump just might carry Kari Lake across the finish line.”

published in writing · Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 4 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I’m increasingly convinced Trump might win Nevada.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Also, don’t be surprised if Eric Hovde and/or Dave McCormack win.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tammy Baldwin
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Eric Hovde
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Y’all, I cannot believe I am writing this, but Trump just might carry Kari Lake across the finish line.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-az
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ruben Gallego
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kari Lake
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Also, don’t be surprised if Eric Hovde and/or Dave McCormack win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Dave McCormick
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.