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Jonah GoldbergNov 4, 2022

Asked to name a potential upset, Goldberg picked Lee Zeldin defeating Kathy Hochul in the New York governor's race.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Dispatch PodcastHear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Kathy Hochul wonWhat happenedcalled Lee Zeldin
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
−101Skillafter difficulty

What Jonah Goldberg said

I'm going to go before David grabs it and say, Lee Zeldin beats Kathy Hochul.
Our reading: Lee Zeldin to win the 2022 New York gubernatorial election
Where it was said
The Dispatch Podcast
The episode
Your Midterms Questions, Answered
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidNov 4, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Lee Zeldin to win the 2022 New York gubernatorial election

    What happenedKathy Hochul woncalled Lee Zeldin
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.01difficulty−101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2022-governor-ny
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    −101
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Kathy Hochul
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 New York gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Lee Zeldin
    days before the vote when called:
    4
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

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