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Connor "Boston Connor" CampbellSep 18, 2026

Connor predicted the Patriots would rout the Steelers at home in Week 2, expecting a heavy run game in bad weather.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Patriots 20–3What happenedSteelers at Patriots
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell said

We're gonna beat the shit out of them. This is this is gonna be an absolute route.
Our reading: New England Patriots to beat Pittsburgh Steelers
The episode
PMS 2.0 1627 - Thursday Night Football Recap, NFL Week 2 Preview/Picks, Nick Saban, Ian Rapoport, Stanford Steve, Ole Miss Head Coach Pete Golding, & AJ Hawk
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots to beat Pittsburgh Steelers

    What happenedPatriots 20–3Steelers at Patriots
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Patriots by 4.5 · favorite pick, Patriots about 2 in 3 (66%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    3-20
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

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