Carl Cannon· Oct 25, 2024

Cannon argued the national popular vote is structurally tilted toward Democrats because Harris will carry California by roughly four million votes or more and New York by about 1.5 million, while Trump takes Florida and Texas by a few hundred thousand each.

“Kamala Harris is gonna win her home state of California by 4,000,000 votes or more.”

said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics Podcast · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 4 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“Trump will probably win Florida and Texas by but you know, by a few 100,000 votes”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“Trump will probably win Florida and Texas by but you know, by a few 100,000 votes”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“Kamala Harris is gonna win her home state of California by 4,000,000 votes or more. Maybe maybe considerably more.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ca
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in California
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“She's gonna win Donald Trump's home state by 1,500,000 votes, maybe more. ... He was born in New York.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ny
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in New York
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.