Jordan Reid· Apr 20, 2026
In his seven-round ESPN mock draft, Reed projected Fernando Mendoza first overall to the Raiders, had Monroe Freeling going 17th to Detroit as its future tackle, and gave the Lions Michigan edge Derrick Moore at No. 50, with a full slate of other first-round tackle projections.
“So at number 17 in Jordan reads, espn.com mock draft, He is the lion selecting Monroe Freeling, the tackle from Georgia.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Lions (podcast) · read the original →
14 checkable claims — 14 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 25 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 14 have settled, averaging 86.6 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick4They said
2What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- David Bailey
- Tennessee Titans
- Sonny Styles
- New York Giants
- Blake Miller
- Cleveland Browns
- Derrick Moore
- Detroit Lions
- Fernando Mendoza
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Francis Mauigoa
- Arizona Cardinals
- Arvell Reese
- New York Jets
- D'Angelo Ponds
- Keldric Faulk
- Miami Dolphins
- Max Iheanachor
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Olaivavega Ioane
- Baltimore Ravens
- Spencer Fano
- Kadyn Proctor
- Houston Texans
- Monroe Freeling
14 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyTennessee TitansApr 20, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 4
“At number four, David Bailey, the edge rusher to Tennessee.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.38 against a shuffle’s 50+45.38 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45.38
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95.38
- Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesNew York GiantsApr 20, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 5
“And giants at five, Sonny Styles out of Ohio State.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.38 against a shuffle’s 50+45.38 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45.38
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95.38
- Mock Draft PicksBlake MillerCleveland BrownsApr 20, 2026
Blake Miller to be picked at number 24
“Blake Miller going 24 to the Browns”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95.38 against a shuffle’s 50+45.38 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45.38
- player:
- Blake Miller
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 17
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95.38
- Mock Draft PicksDerrick MooreDetroit LionsApr 20, 2026
Derrick Moore to be picked at number 50
“Reed has the lions at 50 taking Michigan edge, Derek Moore, with their second round pick.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- Derrick Moore
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 44
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 50
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“Fernando Mendoza, number one of the Raiders.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaArizona CardinalsApr 20, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3
“Francis Mowajoa, the big tackle from Miami, three to Arizona.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsApr 20, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“Arbel Reese, two to the Jets.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
- Mock Draft PicksD'Angelo PondsApr 20, 2026
D'Angelo Ponds to be picked at number 51
“D'Angelo Ponds, by the way, goes 51 in this mock draft”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- D'Angelo Ponds
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 51
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
- Mock Draft PicksKeldric FaulkMiami DolphinsApr 20, 2026
Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 30
“Kendrick Falk who Falk, the edge rusher from Auburn ... going number 30 to the Dolphins here at the end of the first round”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- Keldric Faulk
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 31
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
Max Iheanachor to be picked at number 23
“Max Ihonychure from Arizona State going 23 to Philly”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- Max Iheanachor
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 21
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
- Mock Draft PicksOlaivavega IoaneBaltimore RavensApr 20, 2026
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 14
“Yoane, the big guard from Penn State going to the Ravens at 14”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- Olaivavega Ioane
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoMiami DolphinsApr 20, 2026
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 11
“Spencer Fano, the big tackle from Utah goes 11 to the Miami Dolphins in this mock draft.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
- Mock Draft PicksKadyn ProctorHouston TexansApr 20, 2026
Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 28
“Caden Procter 28 to Houston”
Close · 50Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- Kadyn Proctor
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 50
- predicted pick:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
- Mock Draft PicksMonroe FreelingDetroit LionsApr 20, 2026
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 17
“So at number 17 in Jordan reads, espn.com mock draft, He is the lion selecting Monroe Freeling, the tackle from Georgia.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 96.82 against a shuffle’s 50+46.82 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 46.82
- player:
- Monroe Freeling
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 96.82
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Matt HarmonScore Predictions · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Dillon ThienemanClose · 57Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.