Audrey MooreheadNov 3, 2026
Moorehead says Democrat Justin Pearson has almost no chance in the redrawn TN-09, meaning Republican Brent Taylor takes the seat.
Published in writing · Tangle (newsletter)Read the original
100Hit · out of 100
Brent Taylor wonWhat happenedcalled, not yet certified
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+100Skillafter difficulty
What Audrey Moorehead said
However, his chances to win the seat remain vanishingly slim
- Where it was published
- Tangle (newsletter)
- The piece
- The 2026 midterms are here.
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 3
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Brent Taylor (Republicans) to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Tennessee's district 9
What happenedBrent Taylor woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-house-tn-09
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Brent Taylor
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. House election in Tennessee's district 9
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Brent Taylor
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.