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Colin Cowherd#54 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 22, 2026

Cowherd ranked the ten best players in the AFC Championship game between the Patriots and Broncos, with Patrick Surtain first, and argued New England's quarterback edge (Drake Maye over Jarrett Stidham) will decide the game. They also said they'd bet the Rams plus points against Seattle and predicted the Rams will pick near the bottom of the first round for the next decade.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · 1 too vague to check
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
27.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 3Settlednone still waiting · 1 too vague to check
#54Colin Cowherd’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Colin Cowherd said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Number one. Patrick's artan I think is you can make the argument he's the best corner.
Colin Cowherd, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode
THE HERD - Hour 2 - Ranking the top players in the AFC Title game, Patriots have the edge, Greg Cosell
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJan 22
  2. GradedAug 5
  1. 1New England Patriots to beat Broncos“bought New England at the most important position, has a sizeable advantage. Drake May over Jarrett Stidham, and I think that's the difference in the game.”
  2. 2Los Angeles Rams to pick “at the bottom of the first round for the next ten Years” (picks 1–32)“they're going to be at the bottom of the first round for the next ten Years”
  3. 3Mike Onwenu to finish top 5 at his position, by an unstated measure“One of the top four to five best guards in the NFL”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
New England Patriots to beat Broncos1Game Outcome Picks—1000+100
Los Angeles Rams to pick “at the bottom of the first round for the next ten Years” (picks 1–32)2Team Draft Slot CallsPicked at 1310054.53+45.47
Mike Onwenu to finish top 5 at his position, by an unstated measure3Positional Finishes————
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 too vague to check10027.3

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 claims — 1 game outcome pick, 1 positional finish and 1 team draft slot call — the 2 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 calls we can check have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 27.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots to beat Broncos

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill

    Closing line (Jan 25): Patriots by 3.5 · favorite pick, Patriots about 2 in 3 (64%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    10-7
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Team Draft Slot CallsLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams to pick “at the bottom of the first round for the next ten Years” (picks 1–32)

    What happenedPicked at 13
    100Hit · naive 54.53
    100this call54.53a naive guess45.47better than naive1difficulty+45.47skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    LAR
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    they picked 46 the year before
    skill:
    45.47
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    54.53
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted pick:
    at the bottom of the first round for the next ten Years (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Positional FinishesMike OnwenuNew England Patriots

    Mike Onwenu to finish top 5 at his position, by an unstated measure

    VerdictToo vague to check

    Too vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.

    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 27.3

Who this take is about

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