Ryan TracyApr 1, 2026
Tracy names five prospects they consider locks to be drafted inside the top eight (Mendoza, Reese, Styles, Bailey, Love), with Bailey likely going top four, and says Ruben Bane will go inside the top 10 even if they slide.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Chiefs (podcast)Hear the original
6 of 6calls landed6 hits · all settled
96.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
6 of 6Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Ryan Tracy said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think Mendoza, Reese, Styles will all go, quote, unquote, locks.
- Where it was said
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)
- The episode
- Chaos ERUPTS in NFL Draft as Browns Target OUTRAGEOUS Pick—Chiefs Stand READY?
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidApr 1
- GradedOct 1
- 1Rueben Bain to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)“So it may be the Chiefs doing it at nine, but I do think he'll go in the top 10.”
- 2Arvell Reese to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)“I think Mendoza, Reese, Styles will all go, quote, unquote, locks... you named five players you think go for sure in the top eight”
- 3Sonny Styles to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)“Who else do you think is Styles? You think he's guaranteed to go in the top eight? I think he is.”
- 4Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)“I think Love has to. Somebody's gonna pull the trigger... you named five players you think go for sure in the top eight”
- 5Fernando Mendoza to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)“Do you think Mendoza is going to go in the top eight? That's how I feel about it.”
- 6David Bailey to be picked “top four” (picks 1–4)“I think it's very likely that Bailey goes top four. Yes.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Bain to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 15 | 80.52 | 50 | — | |
| Arvell Reese to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 5 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Sonny Styles to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)3 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 7 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)4 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 3 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Fernando Mendoza to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)5 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| David Bailey to be picked “top four” (picks 1–4)6 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 2 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| 6 calls · 6 hits · all settled | 96.8 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive6 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 96.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall picktop 10 (picks 1–10)They said
15What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Rueben Bain to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
What happenedWent 1580.52Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- top 10 (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Arvell Reese to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)
What happenedWent 5100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top eight (picks 1–8)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Sonny Styles to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)
What happenedWent 7100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top eight (picks 1–8)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
4Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah Love
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)
What happenedWent 3100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top eight (picks 1–8)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
5Mock Draft PicksFernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza to be picked “top eight” (picks 1–8)
What happenedWent 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top eight (picks 1–8)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
David Bailey to be picked “top four” (picks 1–4)
What happenedWent 2100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top four (picks 1–4)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
96.8naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Ross Jackson · Mock Draft Picks · Rueben Bain · Close 74
Jackson predicts the Saints will stay put and pick at No. 8 overall rather than trading up, and after Mickey Loomis' press conference they now lean toward New Orleans taking a defensive back there — either LSU cornerback Mansoor Delaine or Ohio State safety Caleb Downs — while still viewing Miami edge rusher Ruben Bain Jr. as a likely selection.Lance Zierlein · Mock Draft Picks · Sonny Styles · Hit 81
Zuerlein describes their mock draft 3.0: Carnell Tate to the Giants at No. 5, Sonny Styles falling to the Cowboys at No. 12, and Colton Hood to Dallas at No. 20. They also expect runs on linebackers from the late twenties to about pick 45, defensive tackles from the early-mid twenties into the 40s, and says Ahvion Terrell's 4.65 forty knocks them out of first-round contention. They call Kenyon Saddiq and Mansoor Delaine the safest picks for Dallas, and thinks Delaine's tape is top-four caliber, while Jeremiah Smith could be a generational, Megatron-type receiver.Jaime Eisner · Mock Draft Picks · Arvell Reese · Hit 88
A seven-round Jets mock draft projecting New York to take Ohio State's Arvell Reese at No. 2 and Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson at No. 16, followed by Ty Simpson, Brandon Cisse, Jalon Kilgore, Tyreak Sapp, Kaelon Black, Fernando Carmona and Trebor Pena.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.