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David Pakman#11 of 21 election pundits · Oct 25, 2022

Pakman said things look bad for Republican nominee Brian Dahle in the California governor's race and that Gavin Newsom is headed for a blowout victory.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The David Pakman ShowHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Gavin Newsom wonWhat happenedcertified result
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#11David Pakman’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What David Pakman said

It is not looking good, in case you were wondering for Brian Dahl in California.
Our reading: Gavin Newsom to win the 2022 California gubernatorial election
Where it was said
The David Pakman Show
The episode
10/25/22: Ron DeSantis Debate Collapse as Trump Audio Tapes Released
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
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  1. SaidOct 25, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Gavin Newsom to win the 2022 California gubernatorial election

    What happenedGavin Newsom woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.02difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2022-governor-ca
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Gavin Newsom
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 California gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Gavin Newsom
    days before the vote when called:
    13
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

The race in this take

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More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.