Jack McKessyFeb 18, 2022
McKessy's way-too-early 2022 NFL awards predictions: Mahomes for MVP, Jonathan Taylor for OPOY, Aaron Donald (or Micah Parsons if Donald retires) for DPOY, Kenny Pickett for OROY, Kayvon Thibodeaux for DROY, Michael Thomas for Comeback Player, and Mike Tomlin for Coach of the Year.
Published in writing · The Draft NetworkRead the original
1 of 8calls landed1 hit · 7 misses · all settled
12.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 8 calls
17A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
8 of 8Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Jack McKessy said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThe fifth-year starter will return to his early-season form with no picks in September and ride that momentum to high production and his second MVP award.
- Where it was published
- The Draft Network
- The piece
- 2022 NFL Awards Predictions: Who'll Be MVP, ROTY? - The Draft Network
- The original
- The copy as archived Aug 17, 2022
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidFeb 18, 2022
- GradedAug 5, 2026
- 1Kenny Pickett to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“OROY: Kenny Pickett ... I still feel pretty decent about going with Pickett here.”
- 2Patrick Mahomes to win MVP“MVP: Patrick Mahomes ... ride that momentum to high production and his second MVP award.”
- 3Michael Thomas to win Comeback Player of the Year“CPOY: Michael Thomas ... Thomas is a pretty safe bet here though.”
- 4Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year“DPOY: Aaron Donald OR Micah Parsons ... it would be hard not to pick him here.”
- 5Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year“If Donald does retire, it's Parsons who takes home this award.”
- 6Kayvon Thibodeaux to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“DROY: Kayvon Thibodeaux ... Thibodeaux is probably going to dominate no matter where he ends up.”
- 7Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year“OPOY: Jonathan Taylor ... Taylor is my choice here.”
- 8Kenny Pickett to be the first or second quarterback off the board quarterback off the board“Pickett will likely be the first or second quarterback off the board in this year's draft”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett to win Offensive Rookie of the Year1 | Award Picks | Ja'Marr Chase won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Patrick Mahomes to win MVP2 | Award Picks | Aaron Rodgers won | 0 | 100 | −100 | |
| Michael Thomas to win Comeback Player of the Year3 | Award Picks | Joe Burrow won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year4 | Award Picks | T.J. Watt won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year5 | Award Picks | T.J. Watt won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux to win Defensive Rookie of the Year6 | Award Picks | Micah Parsons won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year7 | Award Picks | Cooper Kupp won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kenny Pickett to be the first or second quarterback off the board quarterback off the board8 | Position Order Calls | — | 100 | 36.26 | +63.74 | |
| 8 calls · 1 hit · 7 misses · all settled | 12.5 | 17 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 7 award picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 12.5 out of 100, against 17 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Kenny Pickett to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedJa'Marr Chase woncalled 08386c54-0d9e-4e77-948e-b0e307f096dc0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Justin Herbert, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- 08386c54-0d9e-4e77-948e-b0e307f096dc
- season:
- 2021
- who won:
- Ja'Marr Chase
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Award PicksPatrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP
What happenedAaron Rodgers woncalled Patrick Mahomes0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1difficulty=−100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- −100
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2021
- who won:
- Aaron Rodgers
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Award PicksMichael ThomasNew Orleans Saints
Michael Thomas to win Comeback Player of the Year
What happenedJoe Burrow woncalled cb856bb4-8c39-44b4-9347-dfb05765f3690Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- comeback_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was b206a6f9-ca9b-4704-90c4-1d8eda1a6933, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- cb856bb4-8c39-44b4-9347-dfb05765f369
- season:
- 2021
- who won:
- Joe Burrow
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
4Award PicksAaron DonaldLos Angeles Rams
Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedT.J. Watt woncalled Aaron Donald0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Donald, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aaron Donald
- season:
- 2021
- who won:
- T.J. Watt
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
5Award PicksMicah ParsonsDallas Cowboys
Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedT.J. Watt woncalled Micah Parsons0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Donald, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Micah Parsons
- season:
- 2021
- who won:
- T.J. Watt
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Kayvon Thibodeaux to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedMicah Parsons woncalled 4dd2754a-53c3-44ad-a6d6-b795519224b40Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Chase Young, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- 4dd2754a-53c3-44ad-a6d6-b795519224b4
- season:
- 2021
- who won:
- Micah Parsons
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
7Award PicksJonathan TaylorIndianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedCooper Kupp woncalled Jonathan Taylor0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Derrick Henry, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jonathan Taylor
- season:
- 2021
- who won:
- Cooper Kupp
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
8Position Order CallsKenny Pickett
Kenny Pickett to be the first or second quarterback off the board quarterback off the board
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 36.26100this call−36.26a naive guess=63.74better than naive×1difficulty=+63.74skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2022
- naive:
- naming one of the 9 at random averages 36.26
- skill:
- 63.74
- player:
- Kenny Pickett
- season:
- 2021
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 36.26
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1–2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
12.5naive 17
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Willie Colon · Award Picks · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.Danny Parkins · Award Picks · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Miss 0
Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.