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Face the NationOct 11, 2026

CBS's own race ratings, cited on air, move the New Hampshire Senate contest out of the toss-up column and into the Democratic column.

Published in writing · Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)Read the original

100Hit · out of 100
Chris Pappas wonWhat happenedcalled, not yet certified
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Face the Nation said

CBS projects that New Hampshire is no longer a toss-up but lean Democrat.
Our reading: Democrat to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
Where it was published
Face the Nation transcripts (CBS News)
The piece
Full transcript of "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Oct. 11, 2026
The original
Read the original
Read it wrong?
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  1. SaidOct 11
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Democrat to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire

    What happenedChris Pappas woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.03difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-senate-nh
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    in their words:
    lean Democrat
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Chris Pappas
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Chris Pappas
    days before the vote when called:
    22
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

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More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.