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2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire

Senate · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Chris Pappas87¢
  • John E. Sununu14¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 3 polls in 21 days · through September 22, 2026

  • Chris Pappas49.3%
  • John E. Sununu42.3%
  • Edmond LaPlante2.0%

Chris Pappas by 7.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
The New York Times/Siena University2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22613 LVChris Pappas 50% · John E. Sununu 45%
University of New Hampshire2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211418 LVChris Pappas 50% · John E. Sununu 42% · Edmond LaPlante 2%
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-16 – 2026-09-171200 LVChris Pappas 48% · John E. Sununu 40%
University of New Hampshire2026-08-20 – 2026-08-241878 LVJohn E. Sununu 45% · Chris Pappas 43%
University of New Hampshire2026-08-20 – 2026-08-241878 LVChris Pappas 45% · Scott Brown 40%
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2026-08-17 – 2026-08-181411 LVChris Pappas 48% · John E. Sununu 41%
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2026-08-17 – 2026-08-181411 LVChris Pappas 49% · Scott Brown 37%
Saint Anselm2026-06-24 – 2026-06-251614 RVChris Pappas 47% · John E. Sununu 41%
Saint Anselm2026-06-24 – 2026-06-251614 RVChris Pappas 48% · Scott Brown 36%
University of New Hampshire2026-06-18 – 2026-06-232232 LVChris Pappas 47% · John E. Sununu 44%
University of New Hampshire2026-06-18 – 2026-06-232232 LVChris Pappas 52% · Scott Brown 38%
University of New Hampshire2026-04-17 – 2026-04-211295 LVChris Pappas 49% · John E. Sununu 42%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4
Chris Pappas 3John E. Sununu 1· 4 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (5)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.