Rich Hribar#24 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 19, 2023
Hribar argues Pat Freiermuth reaching 100 catches in 2023 is highly improbable, and that Chris Godwin is undervalued relative to ADP — their projections have Godwin as WR17 in full-PPR while they personally rank them WR24. They also flag Rachaad White, James Conner, Keenan Allen and Brandin Cooks as projecting above their draft cost, and prefers Christian Watson to Godwin at similar cost.
Published in writing · Sharp Football AnalysisRead the original
What Rich Hribar said
The projections have Godwin as the WR17 in full-PPR scoring. I have him as WR24.
- Where it was published
- Sharp Football Analysis
- The piece
- How to Use Fantasy Football Projections, Rankings & ADP
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJun 19, 2023
- GradedAug 5, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
The call scored 33.3 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
Positional FinishesChris Godwin Jr.Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin Jr. to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #32called #24 · by fantasy points33.33Miss · naive 5033.33this call−50a naive guess=−16.67worse than naive×2difficulty=−33.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −33.33
- player:
- Chris Godwin Jr.
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 50
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 26
- actual finish:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 24
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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