Lanhee ChenSep 3, 2024
Chen said Republicans have essentially no chance of carrying California at the presidential level this year, and separately predicted that Trump would almost certainly have a Republican Senate majority to work with.
Said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics PodcastHear the original
What Lanhee Chen said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromit is very unlikely that a Republican nominee will carry California in a presidential contest certainly this year
- Where it was said
- RealClearPolitics Podcast
- The episode
- The Trump/Harris Race, Tim Walz’ Avoidance of a Question About Gaza Hostages, and Looking Forward to Key Events in September
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 3, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
- 1Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in California“it is very unlikely that a Republican nominee will carry California in a presidential contest certainly this year and and probably for some time to come”
- 2Control of Congress“whether Trump's got a majority in the house or the senate. He'll he'll have one in the senate by all likelihood.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in California1 | Race Winners | Kamala Harris won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| “whether Trump's got a majority in the house or the senate.…”2 | Control of Congress | — | 100 | 0 | +108 | |
| 2 calls · 2 hits · all settled | 100 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in California
What happenedKamala Harris woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.08difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-ca
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- very unlikely that a Republican nominee will carry California
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Kamala Harris
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in California
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 62
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
“whether Trump's got a majority in the house or the senate. He'll he'll have one in the senate by all likelihood.”
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.08difficulty=+108skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 108
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- by all likelihood
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 62
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 50
The race in this take
every call on eachMore control of congress
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Erick-Woods Erickson · Control of Congress · Hit 100
Erickson expects a bad night for Republicans: they lose the Senate seats in North Carolina and Texas but hold the rest of the contested seats — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina and Ohio — and keep Senate control, possibly even flipping Michigan. They believe the House is lost, with the GOP shedding roughly 25 seats.