Rich Eisen· Dec 30, 2024
Eisen pushed back on the Commanders claim, saying the Ravens and Eagles will go further and could meet in the Super Bowl in New Orleans, and said the Vikings can win in Detroit for the one seed and reach the Super Bowl. He also said the Steelers will not win the AFC North.
“I would choose the Ravens and the Eagles to last longer than the commanders to the point where that could even be your Super Bowl in New Orleans.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 3 conference champions and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 25 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia EaglesDec 30, 2024
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
“I would choose the Ravens and the Eagles to last longer than the commanders to the point where that could even be your Super Bowl in New Orleans. Easily, that could be your Super Bowl. Eagles, Ravens. 100.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Division WinnersWashington CommandersDec 30, 2024
Washington Commanders to win the division
“Pittsburgh is not going to win the division, bud.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- won the division:
- no
- Conference ChampionsMinnesota VikingsDec 30, 2024
Minnesota Vikings to reach the Super Bowl
“So the Vikings can 100% win that game in Detroit and get the week off ... And if they are healthy, they can absolutely make it to the Super Bowl.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-111 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -111
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Conference ChampionsBaltimore RavensDec 30, 2024
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
“I would choose the Ravens and the Eagles to last longer than the commanders to the point where that could even be your Super Bowl in New Orleans.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-111 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -111
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonScore Predictions · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Ty SchmitGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0While taking the Bears to cover, he said he expects the Eagles to win Monday night in Chicago in a tight game.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brockman argues the Seahawks are at the start of a dynasty, predicting they will win multiple Super Bowls over the next five years, and that they are set up to return to the Super Bowl the following season in Los Angeles.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.