Mike Mayock· Apr 21, 2025
Mayock completed his mock draft, assigning picks 20 through 32: Tetairoa McMillan at 20, Shedeur Sanders to Pittsburgh at 21, and on through Walter Nolen to the Eagles at 32, including the Giants trading up to 24 for Jackson Dart.
“I've got the New York Giants trading up from 34 to 24 and taking Jackson Dart.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
13 checkable claims — 13 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 25 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 13 have settled, averaging 69.3 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick29They said
11What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Mykel Williams
- Washington Commanders
- Shemar Stewart
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Malaki Starks
- Baltimore Ravens
- Emeka Egbuka
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Jaxson Dart
- New York Giants
- Tetairoa McMillan
- Shedeur Sanders
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Donovan Ezeiruaku
- Detroit Lions
- Donovan Jackson
- Los Angeles Rams
- Walter Nolen
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Derrick Harmon
- Green Bay Packers
- Maxwell Hairston
- Buffalo Bills
- Josh Simmons
- Houston Texans
13 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Mykel Williams to be picked at number 29
“Let's start with Washington... They take Mikael Williams, six five, two sixty five, long arms”
Close · 46Scored 45.85 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Mykel Williams
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 45.85
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 45.85
- predicted pick:
- 29
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksShemar StewartKansas City ChiefsApr 21, 2025
Shemar Stewart to be picked at number 31
“what do the Chiefs do here?... I've got him taking Shamar Stewart, the defensive band from A and M”
Close · 55Scored 54.53 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Shemar Stewart
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 54.53
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 17
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 54.53
- predicted pick:
- 31
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksMalaki StarksBaltimore RavensApr 21, 2025
Malaki Starks to be picked at number 27
“The Ravens, with six more picks to go, twenty seventh overall... So they stick and pick a safety. Malachi Starks.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Malaki Starks
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksEmeka EgbukaLos Angeles ChargersApr 21, 2025
Emeka Egbuka to be picked at number 22
“And I finally went, you know what? I'm I'm Mecca Abuka, the wide out from Ohio State to pair him with Ladd McConkie.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Emeka Egbuka
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 22
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksJaxson DartNew York GiantsApr 21, 2025
Jaxson Dart to be picked at number 24
“So I've got the New York Giants trading up from 34 to 24 and taking jack Jackson Dart.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Jaxson Dart
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksTetairoa McMillanApr 21, 2025
Tetairoa McMillan to be picked at number 20
“Tete McMillan, twentieth.”
Close · 59Scored 59.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 59.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 59.46
- predicted pick:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 21
“I do like Shador Sanders to Pittsburgh... And I'm hoping at 21, there'll be a little less pressure.”
Miss · 0Scored 0.49 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.49
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.49
- predicted pick:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksDonovan EzeiruakuDetroit LionsApr 21, 2025
Donovan Ezeiruaku to be picked at number 28
“Twenty eighth overall Lions... So I gave him Dominic Esaraku from Boston College.”
Close · 50Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Donovan Ezeiruaku
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 44
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 50
- predicted pick:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksDonovan JacksonLos Angeles RamsApr 21, 2025
Donovan Jackson to be picked at number 26
“And now the Rams do what? Twenty sixth overall... So I went with Donovan Jackson, another Buckeye.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Donovan Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 24
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 26
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksWalter NolenPhiladelphia EaglesApr 21, 2025
Walter Nolen to be picked at number 32
“And Howie Roseman's now on the clock thirty second overall... So I'm giving him Walter Nolan, who is most one of the most gifted players in this draft.”
Close · 50Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Walter Nolen
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 50
- predicted pick:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksDerrick HarmonGreen Bay PackersApr 21, 2025
Derrick Harmon to be picked at number 23
“So they they get Derek Harmon from Oregon, who's an immediate plug and play starter, a defensive tackle... I think he starts day one for for Green Bay.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Derrick Harmon
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 21
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksMaxwell HairstonBuffalo BillsApr 21, 2025
Maxwell Hairston to be picked at number 30
“The Bills thirtieth overall do what?... We're gonna get the fourth corner, Maxwell Hairston from, Kentucky.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Maxwell Hairston
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 30
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
- Mock Draft PicksJosh SimmonsHouston TexansApr 21, 2025
Josh Simmons to be picked at number 25
“I have them taken Josh Simmons from Ohio State... from an athletic perspective, he's a higher pick than 25.”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 44.78 against a shuffle’s 50-5.22 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- -5.22
- player:
- Josh Simmons
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 32
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 25
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 44.78
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
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The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.