Rich Hribar#24 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 1, 2024

Hribar published full statistical projections and fantasy rankings for 500+ players for the 2024 NFL season, ordering quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends by projected fantasy points and projecting individual passing, rushing and receiving lines.

Published in writing · Sharp Football AnalysisRead the original

8 of 47calls landed

8 hits · 24 close calls · 15 misses · all settled

50.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 47 calls

34.6A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

47 of 47Settlednone still waiting

#24Rich Hribar’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Hribar said

The table below has my fantasy football projections for all quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Rich Hribar, the lead quote

Where it was published: Sharp Football Analysis
The piece: Fantasy Football Rankings, Projections & Stats, 2024
The original: The copy as archived Nov 8, 2024 · the live page (it has changed since)
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 1, 2024
GradedAug 5, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses
Player Season Numbers	8	20	15
Fantasy Rankings	0	4	0
All	8	24	15

How each call scored

47 checkable claims — 43 player season numbers and 4 fantasy rankings — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 34 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 47 have settled, averaging 50.2 out of 100, against 34.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

receiving tds

11.2They said

17What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Player Season Numbers8 hits · 20 close calls · 15 missesShow ▸

Ja'Marr Chase to record 11.2 receiving tds
“Ja'Marr Chase ... 1,404.1 11.2”
Ja'Marr Chase Cincinnati Bengals
17called 11.2
31.76Miss
31.76 − 0 naive = 31.76 × 2 difficulty = +63.53 skill
How this was scored
naive:
5.47
skill:
63.53
what happened:
17
player:
Ja'Marr Chase
season:
2024
accuracy:
31.76
baseline:
0
they said:
11.2
statistic:
receiving_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
7
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
3.95
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
CeeDee Lamb to record 10.7 receiving tds
“CeeDee Lamb ... 1,643.1 10.7”
CeeDee Lamb Dallas Cowboys
6called 10.7
12.15Miss
12.15 − 50.48 naive = −38.33 × 2 difficulty = −76.67 skill
How this was scored
naive:
7.97
skill:
−76.67
what happened:
6
player:
CeeDee Lamb
season:
2024
accuracy:
12.15
baseline:
50.48
they said:
10.7
statistic:
receiving_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
12
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
3.95
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Sam LaPorta to record 9.4 receiving tds
“Sam LaPorta ... 999.1 9.4”
Sam LaPorta Detroit Lions
7called 9.4
48.94Close
48.94 − 82.37 naive = −33.43 × 2 difficulty = −66.86 skill
How this was scored
naive:
6.38
skill:
−66.86
what happened:
7
player:
Sam LaPorta
season:
2024
accuracy:
48.94
baseline:
82.37
they said:
9.4
statistic:
receiving_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
10
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.77
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Jonathan Taylor to record 1,223.2 rushing yards
“Jonathan Taylor IND RB ... 271.8 1,223.2 9.5”
Jonathan Taylor Indianapolis Colts
1,431called 1,223.2
70.96Close
70.96 − 0 naive = 70.96 × 2 difficulty = +141.91 skill
How this was scored
naive:
565.82
skill:
141.91
what happened:
1431
player:
Jonathan Taylor
season:
2024
accuracy:
70.96
baseline:
0
they said:
1223.2
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
741
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Jalen Hurts to record 11.2 rushing tds
“Jalen Hurts ... 673.3 11.2”
Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles
14called 11.2
60Close
60 − 28.37 naive = 31.63 × 2 difficulty = +63.25 skill
How this was scored
naive:
8.99
skill:
63.25
what happened:
14
player:
Jalen Hurts
season:
2024
accuracy:
60
baseline:
28.37
they said:
11.2
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
15
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Josh Allen to record 28.2 passing tds
“Josh Allen BUF QB ... 28.2”
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
28called 28.2
98.58Hit
98.58 − 52.3 naive = 46.28 × 2 difficulty = +92.56 skill
How this was scored
naive:
21.32
skill:
92.56
what happened:
28
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2024
accuracy:
98.58
baseline:
52.3
they said:
28.2
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
29
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Tyreek Hill to record 119.8 receptions
“Tyreek Hill ... 119.8 1,701.0”
Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins
81called 119.8
35.23Miss
35.23 − 84.7 naive = −49.47 × 2 difficulty = −98.95 skill
How this was scored
naive:
74.8
skill:
−98.95
what happened:
81
player:
Tyreek Hill
season:
2024
accuracy:
35.23
baseline:
84.7
they said:
119.8
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
119
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
30.61
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Lamar Jackson to record 851.9 rushing yards
“Lamar Jackson BAL QB ... 139.7 851.9 4.2”
Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
915called 851.9
86.21Hit
86.21 − 7.46 naive = 78.75 × 2 difficulty = +157.49 skill
How this was scored
naive:
491.64
skill:
157.49
what happened:
915
player:
Lamar Jackson
season:
2024
accuracy:
86.21
baseline:
7.46
they said:
851.9
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
821
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
162.28
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Derrick Henry to record 1,163.1 rushing yards
“Derrick Henry BAL RB ... 264.3 1,163.1 11.6”
Derrick Henry Baltimore Ravens
1,921called 1,163.1
21.09Miss
21.09 − 0 naive = 21.09 × 2 difficulty = +42.19 skill
How this was scored
naive:
778.82
skill:
42.19
what happened:
1921
player:
Derrick Henry
season:
2024
accuracy:
21.09
baseline:
0
they said:
1163.1
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1167
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Saquon Barkley to record 1,174.1 rushing yards
“Saquon Barkley PHI RB ... 266.8 1,174.1 6.7”
Saquon Barkley Philadelphia Eagles
2,005called 1,174.1
17.12Miss
17.12 − 0 naive = 17.12 × 2 difficulty = +34.23 skill
How this was scored
naive:
676.32
skill:
34.23
what happened:
2005
player:
Saquon Barkley
season:
2024
accuracy:
17.12
baseline:
0
they said:
1174.1
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
962
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Jalen Hurts to record 4,069.2 passing yards
“Jalen Hurts PHI QB ... 4,069.2”
Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles
2,903called 4,069.2
42.68Close
42.68 − 91.12 naive = −48.44 × 2 difficulty = −96.88 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2774.12
skill:
−96.88
what happened:
2903
player:
Jalen Hurts
season:
2024
accuracy:
42.68
baseline:
91.12
they said:
4069.2
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
3858
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Tyreek Hill to record 1,701 receiving yards
“Tyreek Hill MIA WR ... 173.6 119.8 1,701.0 9.6”
Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins
959called 1,701
12.76Miss
12.76 − 75.65 naive = −62.89 × 2 difficulty = −125.78 skill
How this was scored
naive:
1091.95
skill:
−125.78
what happened:
959
player:
Tyreek Hill
season:
2024
accuracy:
12.76
baseline:
75.65
they said:
1701
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1799
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Anthony Richardson to record 877.8 rushing yards
“Anthony Richardson IND QB ... 159.6 877.8 9.6”
Anthony Richardson Indianapolis Colts
499called 877.8
13.69Miss
13.69 − 0 naive = 13.69 × 2 difficulty = +27.39 skill
How this was scored
naive:
149.14
skill:
27.39
what happened:
499
player:
Anthony Richardson
season:
2024
accuracy:
13.69
baseline:
0
they said:
877.8
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
136
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
162.28
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Christian McCaffrey to record 586.4 receiving yards
“Christian McCaffrey ... 586.4 4.5”
Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers
146called 586.4
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
naive:
357.16
skill:
0
what happened:
146
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
they said:
586.4
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
564
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
150.31
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Josh Allen to record 10.2 rushing tds
“Josh Allen ... 537.6 10.2”
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
12called 10.2
70Close
70 − 49.77 naive = 20.23 × 2 difficulty = +40.46 skill
How this was scored
naive:
8.99
skill:
40.46
what happened:
12
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2024
accuracy:
70
baseline:
49.77
they said:
10.2
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
15
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
2.97
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
C.J. Stroud to record 4,895.1 passing yards
“C.J. Stroud HOU QB ... 4,895.1”
C.J. Stroud Houston Texans
3,727called 4,895.1
52.27Close
52.27 − 55.57 naive = −3.3 × 2 difficulty = −6.6 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2899.12
skill:
−6.6
what happened:
3727
player:
C.J. Stroud
season:
2024
accuracy:
52.27
baseline:
55.57
they said:
4895.1
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
4108
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Ja'Marr Chase to record 1,404.1 receiving yards
“Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR ... 170.2 112.3 1,404.1 11.2”
Ja'Marr Chase Cincinnati Bengals
1,708called 1,404.1
64.41Close
64.41 − 0 naive = 64.41 × 2 difficulty = +128.83 skill
How this was scored
naive:
800.45
skill:
128.83
what happened:
1708
player:
Ja'Marr Chase
season:
2024
accuracy:
64.41
baseline:
0
they said:
1404.1
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1216
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Josh Allen to record 537.6 rushing yards
“Josh Allen ... 107.5 537.6 10.2”
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
531called 537.6
97.54Hit
97.54 − 29.24 naive = 68.3 × 2 difficulty = +136.6 skill
How this was scored
naive:
343.14
skill:
136.6
what happened:
531
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2024
accuracy:
97.54
baseline:
29.24
they said:
537.6
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
524
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
162.28
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
C.J. Stroud to record 30.4 passing tds
“C.J. Stroud ... 30.4 9.1”
C.J. Stroud Houston Texans
20called 30.4
31.58Miss
31.58 − 83.22 naive = −51.64 × 2 difficulty = −103.28 skill
How this was scored
naive:
18.32
skill:
−103.28
what happened:
20
player:
C.J. Stroud
season:
2024
accuracy:
31.58
baseline:
83.22
they said:
30.4
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
23
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Jalen Hurts to record 673.3 rushing yards
“Jalen Hurts ... 149.6 673.3 11.2”
Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles
630called 673.3
87.14Hit
87.14 − 21.79 naive = 65.35 × 2 difficulty = +130.7 skill
How this was scored
naive:
383.64
skill:
130.7
what happened:
630
player:
Jalen Hurts
season:
2024
accuracy:
87.14
baseline:
21.79
they said:
673.3
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
605
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
162.28
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Mark Andrews to record 1,036.1 receiving yards
“Mark Andrews BAL TE ... 123.1 84.9 1,036.1 8.5”
Mark Andrews Baltimore Ravens
673called 1,036.1
29.91Miss
29.91 − 16.98 naive = 12.93 × 2 difficulty = +25.86 skill
How this was scored
naive:
393.63
skill:
25.86
what happened:
673
player:
Mark Andrews
season:
2024
accuracy:
29.91
baseline:
16.98
they said:
1036.1
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
544
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
243.26
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Travis Kelce to record 96.3 receptions
“Travis Kelce ... 96.3 1,079.0”
Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs
97called 96.3
98.56Hit
How this was scored
naive:
58.61
skill:
155.42
what happened:
97
player:
Travis Kelce
season:
2024
accuracy:
98.56
baseline:
20.84
they said:
96.3
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
93
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
24.22
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Patrick Mahomes to record 4,752.7 passing yards
“Patrick Mahomes KC QB ... 4,752.7”
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs
3,928called 4,752.7
65.3Close
65.3 − 49.52 naive = 15.78 × 2 difficulty = +31.55 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2936.62
skill:
31.55
what happened:
3928
player:
Patrick Mahomes
season:
2024
accuracy:
65.3
baseline:
49.52
they said:
4752.7
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
4183
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Christian McCaffrey to record 69 receptions
“Christian McCaffrey ... 86.2 69.0 586.4 4.5”
Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers
15called 69
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
naive:
42.93
skill:
0
what happened:
15
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
they said:
69
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
67
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
18.86
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Travis Kelce to record 1,079 receiving yards
“Travis Kelce KC TE ... 133.8 96.3 1,079.0 8.2”
Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs
823called 1,079
52.55Close
52.55 − 49.12 naive = 3.43 × 2 difficulty = +6.86 skill
How this was scored
naive:
613.63
skill:
6.86
what happened:
823
player:
Travis Kelce
season:
2024
accuracy:
52.55
baseline:
49.12
they said:
1079
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
984
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
243.26
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Breece Hall to record 1,188.5 rushing yards
“Breece Hall NYJ RB ... 258.4 1,188.5 9.0”
Breece Hall New York Jets
876called 1,188.5
47.41Close
47.41 − 58.06 naive = −10.65 × 2 difficulty = −21.3 skill
How this was scored
naive:
692.32
skill:
−21.3
what happened:
876
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2024
accuracy:
47.41
baseline:
58.06
they said:
1188.5
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
994
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Justin Jefferson to record 1,665.2 receiving yards
“Justin Jefferson MIN WR ... 184.0 114.1 1,665.2 8.6”
Justin Jefferson Minnesota Vikings
1,533called 1,665.2
84.12Hit
84.12 − 0 naive = 84.12 × 2 difficulty = +168.24 skill
How this was scored
naive:
729.45
skill:
168.24
what happened:
1533
player:
Justin Jefferson
season:
2024
accuracy:
84.12
baseline:
0
they said:
1665.2
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1074
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 1,415.7 receiving yards
“Amon-Ra St. Brown ... 1,415.7 8.7”
Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions
1,263called 1,415.7
78.43Close
78.43 − 50.43 naive = 28 × 2 difficulty = +56 skill
How this was scored
naive:
949.95
skill:
56
what happened:
1263
player:
Amon-Ra St. Brown
season:
2024
accuracy:
78.43
baseline:
50.43
they said:
1415.7
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1515
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Sam LaPorta to record 999.1 receiving yards
“Sam LaPorta DET TE ... 132.7 94.3 999.1 9.4”
Sam LaPorta Detroit Lions
726called 999.1
45.33Close
45.33 − 55.96 naive = −10.63 × 2 difficulty = −21.26 skill
How this was scored
naive:
566.13
skill:
−21.26
what happened:
726
player:
Sam LaPorta
season:
2024
accuracy:
45.33
baseline:
55.96
they said:
999.1
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
889
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
243.26
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Justin Jefferson to record 114.1 receptions
“Justin Jefferson ... 114.1 1,665.2”
Justin Jefferson Minnesota Vikings
103called 114.1
80.54Hit
80.54 − 0 naive = 80.54 × 2 difficulty = +161.09 skill
How this was scored
naive:
49.3
skill:
161.09
what happened:
103
player:
Justin Jefferson
season:
2024
accuracy:
80.54
baseline:
0
they said:
114.1
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
68
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
30.61
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Breece Hall to record 65.6 receptions
“Breece Hall ... 91.1 65.6 504.9”
Breece Hall New York Jets
57called 65.6
73.78Close
73.78 − 66.42 naive = 7.36 × 2 difficulty = +14.72 skill
How this was scored
naive:
47.43
skill:
14.72
what happened:
57
player:
Breece Hall
season:
2024
accuracy:
73.78
baseline:
66.42
they said:
65.6
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
76
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
18.86
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Bijan Robinson to record 1,062.6 rushing yards
“Bijan Robinson ATL RB ... 231.0 1,062.6 6.9”
Bijan Robinson Atlanta Falcons
1,456called 1,062.6
45.96Close
45.96 − 0 naive = 45.96 × 2 difficulty = +91.92 skill
How this was scored
naive:
683.32
skill:
91.92
what happened:
1456
player:
Bijan Robinson
season:
2024
accuracy:
45.96
baseline:
0
they said:
1062.6
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
976
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Patrick Mahomes to record 31.9 passing tds
“Patrick Mahomes ... 31.9”
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs
26called 31.9
63.01Close
63.01 − 56.32 naive = 6.69 × 2 difficulty = +13.37 skill
How this was scored
naive:
20.32
skill:
13.37
what happened:
26
player:
Patrick Mahomes
season:
2024
accuracy:
63.01
baseline:
56.32
they said:
31.9
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
27
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 124.2 receptions
“Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR ... 169.0 124.2 1,415.7 8.7”
Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions
115called 124.2
85.19Hit
85.19 − 30.09 naive = 55.1 × 2 difficulty = +110.18 skill
How this was scored
naive:
74.8
skill:
110.18
what happened:
115
player:
Amon-Ra St. Brown
season:
2024
accuracy:
85.19
baseline:
30.09
they said:
124.2
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
119
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
30.61
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Christian McCaffrey to record 10.6 rushing tds
“Christian McCaffrey ... 1,276.7 10.6”
Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers
0called 10.6
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
naive:
9.37
skill:
0
what happened:
0
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
they said:
10.6
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
14
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
4.74
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
CeeDee Lamb to record 1,643.1 receiving yards
“CeeDee Lamb ... 1,643.1 10.7”
CeeDee Lamb Dallas Cowboys
1,194called 1,643.1
45.34Close
45.34 − 78.72 naive = −33.38 × 2 difficulty = −66.77 skill
How this was scored
naive:
1066.95
skill:
−66.77
what happened:
1194
player:
CeeDee Lamb
season:
2024
accuracy:
45.34
baseline:
78.72
they said:
1643.1
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1749
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Josh Allen to record 4,472.1 passing yards
“Josh Allen BUF QB ... 4,472.1”
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
3,731called 4,472.1
66.86Close
66.86 − 60.71 naive = 6.15 × 2 difficulty = +12.29 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2998.12
skill:
12.29
what happened:
3731
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2024
accuracy:
66.86
baseline:
60.71
they said:
4472.1
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
4306
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Christian McCaffrey to record 1,276.7 rushing yards
“Christian McCaffrey SF RB ... 266.0 1,276.7 10.6”
Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers
202called 1,276.7
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
naive:
924.82
skill:
0
what happened:
202
player:
Christian McCaffrey
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
they said:
1276.7
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
1459
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Saquon Barkley to record 6.7 rushing tds
“Saquon Barkley ... 1,174.1 6.7”
Saquon Barkley Philadelphia Eagles
13called 6.7
3.08Miss
3.08 − 0 naive = 3.08 × 2 difficulty = +6.15 skill
How this was scored
naive:
5.37
skill:
6.15
what happened:
13
player:
Saquon Barkley
season:
2024
accuracy:
3.08
baseline:
0
they said:
6.7
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
6
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
4.74
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Anthony Richardson to record 3,350.4 passing yards
“Anthony Richardson ... 3,350.4”
Anthony Richardson Indianapolis Colts
1,814called 3,350.4
8.29Miss
8.29 − 24.99 naive = −16.7 × 2 difficulty = −33.4 skill
How this was scored
naive:
1133.62
skill:
−33.4
what happened:
1814
player:
Anthony Richardson
season:
2024
accuracy:
8.29
baseline:
24.99
they said:
3350.4
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
577
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Derrick Henry to record 11.6 rushing tds
“Derrick Henry ... 1,163.1 11.6”
Derrick Henry Baltimore Ravens
16called 11.6
45Close
45 − 4.61 naive = 40.39 × 2 difficulty = +80.78 skill
How this was scored
naive:
8.37
skill:
80.78
what happened:
16
player:
Derrick Henry
season:
2024
accuracy:
45
baseline:
4.61
they said:
11.6
statistic:
rushing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
12
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
4.74
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Lamar Jackson to record 3,630.2 passing yards
“Lamar Jackson ... 3,630.2”
Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
4,172called 3,630.2
74.03Close
74.03 − 28.67 naive = 45.36 × 2 difficulty = +90.71 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2684.12
skill:
90.71
what happened:
4172
player:
Lamar Jackson
season:
2024
accuracy:
74.03
baseline:
28.67
they said:
3630.2
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
3678
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1690.24
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
CeeDee Lamb to record 126.4 receptions
“CeeDee Lamb DAL WR ... 181.9 126.4 1,643.1 10.7”
CeeDee Lamb Dallas Cowboys
101called 126.4
59.81Close
59.81 − 63.97 naive = −4.16 × 2 difficulty = −8.32 skill
How this was scored
naive:
82.8
skill:
−8.32
what happened:
101
player:
CeeDee Lamb
season:
2024
accuracy:
59.81
baseline:
63.97
they said:
126.4
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
135
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
30.61
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?

Fantasy Rankings4 close callsShow ▸

“Josh Allen BUF QB 374.2 ... Jalen Hurts PHI QB 370.5 ... Patrick Mahomes KC QB 334.0 ... Aaron Rodgers NYJ QB 287.5”
60Close
60 − 50 naive = 10 × 2 difficulty = +20 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
20
placed:
15
season:
2024
players:
15
accuracy:
60
baseline:
50
by position:
QB 15: 60
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
“Travis Kelce KC TE 205.2 ... Sam LaPorta DET TE 203.6 ... Pat Freiermuth PIT TE 129.9”
65.73Close
65.73 − 50 naive = 15.73 × 2 difficulty = +31.47 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
31.47
placed:
12
season:
2024
players:
12
accuracy:
65.73
baseline:
50
by position:
TE 12: 65.73
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
“Christian McCaffrey SF RB 306.2 ... Breece Hall NYJ RB 267.0 ... David Montgomery DET RB 171.1”
57.29Close
57.29 − 50 naive = 7.29 × 2 difficulty = +14.59 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
14.59
placed:
20
season:
2024
players:
20
accuracy:
57.29
baseline:
50
by position:
RB 20: 57.29
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
“CeeDee Lamb DAL WR 303.6 ... Tyreek Hill MIA WR 291.2 ... Nico Collins HOU WR 200.6”
69.92Close
69.92 − 50 naive = 19.92 × 2 difficulty = +39.85 skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
39.85
placed:
20
season:
2024
players:
20
accuracy:
69.92
baseline:
50
by position:
WR 20: 69.92
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
0
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.
Parker Hurley · Roster Spot Calls · Khalid Kareem · Miss 0
Hurley predicts the 49ers will release Khalil Kareem when Nate Hobbs is activated and cut Brandin Cooks when C.J. West returns, while arguing Sebastian Valdez won't be the one let go and no cornerback will be cut.
Jason Harmon · Roster Spot Calls · Max Brosmer · Miss 0
Harmon expects the Vikings' quarterback room to stay intact while Kyler Murray is hurt, and predicts Max Brosmer will be released and re-signed to the practice squad since Minnesota won't carry four QBs.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Lazarczyk expects the Raiders to be sellers before the trade deadline, suggesting Kirk Cousins could be dealt back to the Vikings and that benched interior lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson is a prime candidate to be traded somewhere.
Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.

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