Rich Hribar· Sep 1, 2024
Hribar published full statistical projections and fantasy rankings for 500+ players for the 2024 NFL season, ordering quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends by projected fantasy points and projecting individual passing, rushing and receiving lines.
“The table below has my fantasy football projections for all quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.”
published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original (as archived Nov 8, 2024) → · live page (has changed since this capture)
47 checkable claims — 43 player season numbers and 4 fantasy rankings — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 34 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 47 have settled, averaging 50.2 out of 100, against 34.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
receiving tds11.2They said
17What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Cincinnati Bengals
- CeeDee Lamb
- Dallas Cowboys
- Sam LaPorta
- Detroit Lions
- Jonathan Taylor
- Indianapolis Colts
- Jalen Hurts
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Josh Allen
- Buffalo Bills
- Tyreek Hill
- Miami Dolphins
- Lamar Jackson
- Baltimore Ravens
- Derrick Henry
- Saquon Barkley
- Anthony Richardson
- Christian McCaffrey
- San Francisco 49ers
- C.J. Stroud
- Houston Texans
- Mark Andrews
- Travis Kelce
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes
- Breece Hall
- New York Jets
- Justin Jefferson
- Minnesota Vikings
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Bijan Robinson
- Atlanta Falcons
47 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Ja'Marr Chase to record 11.2 receiving tds
“Ja'Marr Chase ... 1,404.1 11.2”
Miss · 32Scored 31.76a naive guess scored 0+63.53 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 5.47
- skill:
- 63.53
- what happened:
- 17
- player:
- Ja'Marr Chase
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 31.76
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 11.2
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 7
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.95
- zero at percent out:
- 50
CeeDee Lamb to record 10.7 receiving tds
“CeeDee Lamb ... 1,643.1 10.7”
Miss · 12Scored 12.15a naive guess scored 50.48-76.67 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 7.97
- skill:
- -76.67
- what happened:
- 6
- player:
- CeeDee Lamb
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 12.15
- baseline:
- 50.48
- predicted:
- 10.7
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 12
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.95
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Sam LaPorta to record 9.4 receiving tds
“Sam LaPorta ... 999.1 9.4”
Close · 49Scored 48.94a naive guess scored 82.37-66.86 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 6.38
- skill:
- -66.86
- what happened:
- 7
- player:
- Sam LaPorta
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 48.94
- baseline:
- 82.37
- predicted:
- 9.4
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 10
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 2.77
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Jonathan Taylor to record 1,223.2 rushing yards
“Jonathan Taylor IND RB ... 271.8 1,223.2 9.5”
Close · 71Scored 70.96a naive guess scored 0+141.91 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 565.82
- skill:
- 141.91
- what happened:
- 1431
- player:
- Jonathan Taylor
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 70.96
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 1223.2
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 741
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 390.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Jalen Hurts to record 11.2 rushing tds
“Jalen Hurts ... 673.3 11.2”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 28.37+63.25 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 8.99
- skill:
- 63.25
- what happened:
- 14
- player:
- Jalen Hurts
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 28.37
- predicted:
- 11.2
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 15
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 2.97
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Player Season NumbersJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 1, 2024
Josh Allen to record 28.2 passing tds
“Josh Allen BUF QB ... 28.2”
Hit · 99Scored 98.58a naive guess scored 52.3+92.56 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 21.32
- skill:
- 92.56
- what happened:
- 28
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 98.58
- baseline:
- 52.3
- predicted:
- 28.2
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 29
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Tyreek Hill to record 119.8 receptions
“Tyreek Hill ... 119.8 1,701.0”
Miss · 35Scored 35.23a naive guess scored 84.7-98.95 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 74.8
- skill:
- -98.95
- what happened:
- 81
- player:
- Tyreek Hill
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 35.23
- baseline:
- 84.7
- predicted:
- 119.8
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 119
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 30.61
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Lamar Jackson to record 851.9 rushing yards
“Lamar Jackson BAL QB ... 139.7 851.9 4.2”
Hit · 86Scored 86.21a naive guess scored 7.46+157.49 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 491.64
- skill:
- 157.49
- what happened:
- 915
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 86.21
- baseline:
- 7.46
- predicted:
- 851.9
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 821
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 162.28
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Fantasy RankingsSep 1, 2024
“Josh Allen BUF QB 374.2 ... Jalen Hurts PHI QB 370.5 ... Patrick Mahomes KC QB 334.0 ... Aaron Rodgers NYJ QB 287.5”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- placed:
- 15
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 15
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 15: 60
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Derrick Henry to record 1,163.1 rushing yards
“Derrick Henry BAL RB ... 264.3 1,163.1 11.6”
Miss · 21Scored 21.09a naive guess scored 0+42.19 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 778.82
- skill:
- 42.19
- what happened:
- 1921
- player:
- Derrick Henry
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 21.09
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 1163.1
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1167
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 390.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Saquon Barkley to record 1,174.1 rushing yards
“Saquon Barkley PHI RB ... 266.8 1,174.1 6.7”
Miss · 17Scored 17.12a naive guess scored 0+34.23 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 676.32
- skill:
- 34.23
- what happened:
- 2005
- player:
- Saquon Barkley
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 17.12
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 1174.1
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 962
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 390.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Jalen Hurts to record 4,069.2 passing yards
“Jalen Hurts PHI QB ... 4,069.2”
Close · 43Scored 42.68a naive guess scored 91.12-96.88 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 2774.12
- skill:
- -96.88
- what happened:
- 2903
- player:
- Jalen Hurts
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 42.68
- baseline:
- 91.12
- predicted:
- 4069.2
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 3858
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1690.24
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Tyreek Hill to record 1,701 receiving yards
“Tyreek Hill MIA WR ... 173.6 119.8 1,701.0 9.6”
Miss · 13Scored 12.76a naive guess scored 75.65-125.78 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 1091.95
- skill:
- -125.78
- what happened:
- 959
- player:
- Tyreek Hill
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 12.76
- baseline:
- 75.65
- predicted:
- 1701
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1799
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 384.91
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Anthony Richardson to record 877.8 rushing yards
“Anthony Richardson IND QB ... 159.6 877.8 9.6”
Miss · 14Scored 13.69a naive guess scored 0+27.39 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 149.14
- skill:
- 27.39
- what happened:
- 499
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 13.69
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 877.8
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 136
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 162.28
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Christian McCaffrey to record 586.4 receiving yards
“Christian McCaffrey ... 586.4 4.5”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 357.16
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 146
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 586.4
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 564
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 150.31
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Player Season NumbersJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 1, 2024
Josh Allen to record 10.2 rushing tds
“Josh Allen ... 537.6 10.2”
Close · 70Scored 70a naive guess scored 49.77+40.46 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 8.99
- skill:
- 40.46
- what happened:
- 12
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 70
- baseline:
- 49.77
- predicted:
- 10.2
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 15
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 2.97
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Fantasy RankingsSep 1, 2024
“Travis Kelce KC TE 205.2 ... Sam LaPorta DET TE 203.6 ... Pat Freiermuth PIT TE 129.9”
Close · 66Scored 65.73a naive guess scored 50+31.47 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 31.47
- placed:
- 12
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 65.73
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- TE 12: 65.73
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
C.J. Stroud to record 4,895.1 passing yards
“C.J. Stroud HOU QB ... 4,895.1”
Close · 52Scored 52.27a naive guess scored 55.57-6.6 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 2899.12
- skill:
- -6.6
- what happened:
- 3727
- player:
- C.J. Stroud
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 52.27
- baseline:
- 55.57
- predicted:
- 4895.1
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 4108
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1690.24
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Ja'Marr Chase to record 1,404.1 receiving yards
“Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR ... 170.2 112.3 1,404.1 11.2”
Close · 64Scored 64.41a naive guess scored 0+128.83 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 800.45
- skill:
- 128.83
- what happened:
- 1708
- player:
- Ja'Marr Chase
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 64.41
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 1404.1
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1216
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 384.91
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Player Season NumbersJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 1, 2024
Josh Allen to record 537.6 rushing yards
“Josh Allen ... 107.5 537.6 10.2”
Hit · 98Scored 97.54a naive guess scored 29.24+136.6 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 343.14
- skill:
- 136.6
- what happened:
- 531
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 97.54
- baseline:
- 29.24
- predicted:
- 537.6
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 524
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 162.28
- zero at percent out:
- 50
C.J. Stroud to record 30.4 passing tds
“C.J. Stroud ... 30.4 9.1”
Miss · 32Scored 31.58a naive guess scored 83.22-103.28 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 18.32
- skill:
- -103.28
- what happened:
- 20
- player:
- C.J. Stroud
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 31.58
- baseline:
- 83.22
- predicted:
- 30.4
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 23
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Jalen Hurts to record 673.3 rushing yards
“Jalen Hurts ... 149.6 673.3 11.2”
Hit · 87Scored 87.14a naive guess scored 21.79+130.7 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 383.64
- skill:
- 130.7
- what happened:
- 630
- player:
- Jalen Hurts
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 87.14
- baseline:
- 21.79
- predicted:
- 673.3
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 605
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 162.28
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Mark Andrews to record 1,036.1 receiving yards
“Mark Andrews BAL TE ... 123.1 84.9 1,036.1 8.5”
Miss · 30Scored 29.91a naive guess scored 16.98+25.86 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 393.63
- skill:
- 25.86
- what happened:
- 673
- player:
- Mark Andrews
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 29.91
- baseline:
- 16.98
- predicted:
- 1036.1
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 544
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 243.26
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Travis Kelce to record 96.3 receptions
“Travis Kelce ... 96.3 1,079.0”
Hit · 99Scored 98.56a naive guess scored 20.84+155.42 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 58.61
- skill:
- 155.42
- what happened:
- 97
- player:
- Travis Kelce
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 98.56
- baseline:
- 20.84
- predicted:
- 96.3
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 93
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 24.22
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Patrick Mahomes to record 4,752.7 passing yards
“Patrick Mahomes KC QB ... 4,752.7”
Close · 65Scored 65.3a naive guess scored 49.52+31.55 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 2936.62
- skill:
- 31.55
- what happened:
- 3928
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 65.3
- baseline:
- 49.52
- predicted:
- 4752.7
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 4183
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1690.24
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Christian McCaffrey to record 69 receptions
“Christian McCaffrey ... 86.2 69.0 586.4 4.5”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 42.93
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 15
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 69
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 18.86
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Fantasy RankingsSep 1, 2024
“Christian McCaffrey SF RB 306.2 ... Breece Hall NYJ RB 267.0 ... David Montgomery DET RB 171.1”
Close · 57Scored 57.29a naive guess scored 50+14.59 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 14.59
- placed:
- 20
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 20
- accuracy:
- 57.29
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- RB 20: 57.29
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Travis Kelce to record 1,079 receiving yards
“Travis Kelce KC TE ... 133.8 96.3 1,079.0 8.2”
Close · 53Scored 52.55a naive guess scored 49.12+6.86 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 613.63
- skill:
- 6.86
- what happened:
- 823
- player:
- Travis Kelce
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 52.55
- baseline:
- 49.12
- predicted:
- 1079
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 984
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 243.26
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Breece Hall to record 1,188.5 rushing yards
“Breece Hall NYJ RB ... 258.4 1,188.5 9.0”
Close · 47Scored 47.41a naive guess scored 58.06-21.3 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 692.32
- skill:
- -21.3
- what happened:
- 876
- player:
- Breece Hall
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 47.41
- baseline:
- 58.06
- predicted:
- 1188.5
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 994
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 390.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Justin Jefferson to record 1,665.2 receiving yards
“Justin Jefferson MIN WR ... 184.0 114.1 1,665.2 8.6”
Hit · 84Scored 84.12a naive guess scored 0+168.24 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 729.45
- skill:
- 168.24
- what happened:
- 1533
- player:
- Justin Jefferson
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 84.12
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 1665.2
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1074
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 384.91
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Fantasy RankingsSep 1, 2024
“CeeDee Lamb DAL WR 303.6 ... Tyreek Hill MIA WR 291.2 ... Nico Collins HOU WR 200.6”
Close · 70Scored 69.92a naive guess scored 50+39.85 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 39.85
- placed:
- 20
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 20
- accuracy:
- 69.92
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- WR 20: 69.92
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 1,415.7 receiving yards
“Amon-Ra St. Brown ... 1,415.7 8.7”
Close · 78Scored 78.43a naive guess scored 50.43+56 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 949.95
- skill:
- 56
- what happened:
- 1263
- player:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 78.43
- baseline:
- 50.43
- predicted:
- 1415.7
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1515
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 384.91
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Sam LaPorta to record 999.1 receiving yards
“Sam LaPorta DET TE ... 132.7 94.3 999.1 9.4”
Close · 45Scored 45.33a naive guess scored 55.96-21.26 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 566.13
- skill:
- -21.26
- what happened:
- 726
- player:
- Sam LaPorta
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 45.33
- baseline:
- 55.96
- predicted:
- 999.1
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 889
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 243.26
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Justin Jefferson to record 114.1 receptions
“Justin Jefferson ... 114.1 1,665.2”
Hit · 81Scored 80.54a naive guess scored 0+161.09 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 49.3
- skill:
- 161.09
- what happened:
- 103
- player:
- Justin Jefferson
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 80.54
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 114.1
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 68
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 30.61
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Breece Hall to record 65.6 receptions
“Breece Hall ... 91.1 65.6 504.9”
Close · 74Scored 73.78a naive guess scored 66.42+14.72 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 47.43
- skill:
- 14.72
- what happened:
- 57
- player:
- Breece Hall
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 73.78
- baseline:
- 66.42
- predicted:
- 65.6
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 76
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 18.86
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Bijan Robinson to record 1,062.6 rushing yards
“Bijan Robinson ATL RB ... 231.0 1,062.6 6.9”
Close · 46Scored 45.96a naive guess scored 0+91.92 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 683.32
- skill:
- 91.92
- what happened:
- 1456
- player:
- Bijan Robinson
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 45.96
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 1062.6
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 976
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 390.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Patrick Mahomes to record 31.9 passing tds
“Patrick Mahomes ... 31.9”
Close · 63Scored 63.01a naive guess scored 56.32+13.37 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 20.32
- skill:
- 13.37
- what happened:
- 26
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 63.01
- baseline:
- 56.32
- predicted:
- 31.9
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 27
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 124.2 receptions
“Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR ... 169.0 124.2 1,415.7 8.7”
Hit · 85Scored 85.19a naive guess scored 30.09+110.18 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 74.8
- skill:
- 110.18
- what happened:
- 115
- player:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 85.19
- baseline:
- 30.09
- predicted:
- 124.2
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 119
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 30.61
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Christian McCaffrey to record 10.6 rushing tds
“Christian McCaffrey ... 1,276.7 10.6”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 9.37
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 0
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 10.6
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 14
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
CeeDee Lamb to record 1,643.1 receiving yards
“CeeDee Lamb ... 1,643.1 10.7”
Close · 45Scored 45.34a naive guess scored 78.72-66.77 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 1066.95
- skill:
- -66.77
- what happened:
- 1194
- player:
- CeeDee Lamb
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 45.34
- baseline:
- 78.72
- predicted:
- 1643.1
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1749
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 384.91
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Player Season NumbersJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 1, 2024
Josh Allen to record 4,472.1 passing yards
“Josh Allen BUF QB ... 4,472.1”
Close · 67Scored 66.86a naive guess scored 60.71+12.29 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 2998.12
- skill:
- 12.29
- what happened:
- 3731
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 66.86
- baseline:
- 60.71
- predicted:
- 4472.1
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 4306
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1690.24
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Christian McCaffrey to record 1,276.7 rushing yards
“Christian McCaffrey SF RB ... 266.0 1,276.7 10.6”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 924.82
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 202
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 1276.7
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1459
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 390.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Saquon Barkley to record 6.7 rushing tds
“Saquon Barkley ... 1,174.1 6.7”
Miss · 3Scored 3.08a naive guess scored 0+6.15 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 5.37
- skill:
- 6.15
- what happened:
- 13
- player:
- Saquon Barkley
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 3.08
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 6.7
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 6
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Anthony Richardson to record 3,350.4 passing yards
“Anthony Richardson ... 3,350.4”
Miss · 8Scored 8.29a naive guess scored 24.99-33.4 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 1133.62
- skill:
- -33.4
- what happened:
- 1814
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 8.29
- baseline:
- 24.99
- predicted:
- 3350.4
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 577
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1690.24
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Derrick Henry to record 11.6 rushing tds
“Derrick Henry ... 1,163.1 11.6”
Close · 45Scored 45a naive guess scored 4.61+80.78 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 8.37
- skill:
- 80.78
- what happened:
- 16
- player:
- Derrick Henry
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 45
- baseline:
- 4.61
- predicted:
- 11.6
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 12
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.74
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Lamar Jackson to record 3,630.2 passing yards
“Lamar Jackson ... 3,630.2”
Close · 74Scored 74.03a naive guess scored 28.67+90.71 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 2684.12
- skill:
- 90.71
- what happened:
- 4172
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 74.03
- baseline:
- 28.67
- predicted:
- 3630.2
- statistic:
- passing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 3678
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 1690.24
- zero at percent out:
- 50
CeeDee Lamb to record 126.4 receptions
“CeeDee Lamb DAL WR ... 181.9 126.4 1,643.1 10.7”
Close · 60Scored 59.81a naive guess scored 63.97-8.32 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 82.8
- skill:
- -8.32
- what happened:
- 101
- player:
- CeeDee Lamb
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 59.81
- baseline:
- 63.97
- predicted:
- 126.4
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 135
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 30.61
- zero at percent out:
- 50
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ross JacksonPlayer Season Numbers · Tyler ShoughMiss · 4Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Chris BroussardPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 92Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. He also takes the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 100Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record.
- Nick WrightPlayer Season Numbers · Myles GarrettHit · 84Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among his weekly picks he expects the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee.
- Shannon SharpePlayer Season Numbers · T.J. WattMiss · 0On a Bengals-Steelers matchup, Sharpe took the over on several player props: Ja'Marr Chase over 74.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 36.5 pass attempts, and T.J. Watt over 3.5 tackles+assists, adding that Watt will get two sacks. He also predicted Rico Dowdle would make the Pro Bowl this season.
- Rich EisenPlayer Season Numbers · Micah ParsonsClose · 56Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. He also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.