Gabe Fleisher· Oct 30, 2024

Asked to rank four possible outcomes, he said the most likely was a narrow Kamala Harris presidential win paired with a Democratic House and a Republican Senate, with a full Republican sweep second most likely and a Democratic sweep least likely.

“I I do think Harris' slight edge. It's basically tossed by Harris' latest for the presidency, but then Republican senate.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 chamber control and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 30, 2024
“I I think most... Honestly, if I were to rank them, I'd say most likely would be... I I I do think Harris' slight edge. It's basically tossed by Harris' latest for the presidency, but then Republican senate.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
basically tossup with Harris' slight edge
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlOct 30, 2024
“She wins the presidency narrowly. Democrats win the house narrowly. But because of the map, Republicans take the senate... I'd say most likely would be... I I I do think Harris' slight edge.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2024
skill:
-101
topic:
elections
in their words:
most likely
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlOct 30, 2024
“It's basically tossed by Harris' latest for the presidency, but then Republican senate. So it's that Sarah knows the most likely”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
in their words:
most likely
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More chamber control

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.