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Alain Poupart#33 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 19, 2026

Poupart predicts the 49ers beat the Dolphins 27-17 at Levi's Stadium in Week 2, though they expect the game to be closer than the spread suggests. They also anticipate a larger role for De'Von Achane and a big passing day from Brock Purdy.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

71Close · out of 100
49ers 35–13What happenedcalled 49ers by 10 · won by 22
50A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
71.43This callout of 100
#33Alain Poupart’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Alain Poupart said

Final Prediction: 49ers, 27, Dolphins 17
Our reading: San Francisco 49ers 27 — Dolphins 17
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Setting the Stage for the Dolphins-49ers Week 2 Matchup
The original
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  1. SaidSep 19
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 71.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsSan Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers 27 — Dolphins 17

    What happened49ers 35–13called 49ers by 10 · won by 22
    71.43Close · naive 50
    71.43this call50a naive guess21.43better than naive1.94difficulty+41.57skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): 49ers by 12.5, total 44.5 · this 27–17 calls a closer game (49ers by 10) and fewer points (44).

    How this was scored
    score:
    13-35
    skill:
    41.57
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    71.43
    baseline:
    50
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    22
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

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