Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 1, 2024
Mosher publishes their Week 5 NFL power rankings for 2024, with the Chiefs first and Jaguars last. Along the way they predict the Buccaneers hold onto the NFC South, the Seahawks could steal the NFC West, and the Jaguars will pick inside the top five of the 2025 draft.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marcus Mosher said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThe Jaguars look like a lock to pick inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Week 5 Power Rankings: Ravens' Statement Win Vaults Them Into Top 3 | The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Oct 1, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidOct 1, 2024
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division“This still feels like Tampa Bay's division until further notice, especially if Mayfield continues to play at this level.”
- 2Power Rankings“NFL Week 5 Power Rankings: 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Jacksonville Jaguars”
- 3Jacksonville Jaguars to pick “inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft” (picks 1–5)“The Jaguars look like a lock to pick inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| “NFL Week 5 Power Rankings: 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32.…”2 | Power Rankings | — | 85.21 | 67.38 | +31.74 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars to pick “inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft” (picks 1–5)3 | Team Draft Slot Calls | Picked at 2 | 100 | 45.85 | +96.39 | |
| 3 calls · 3 hits · all settled | 95.1 | 71.1 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 1 division winner, 1 power ranking and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 95.1 out of 100, against 71.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.78difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- won the division:
- yes
“NFL Week 5 Power Rankings: 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. Jacksonville Jaguars”
VerdictHit85.21Hit · naive 67.3885.21this call−67.38a naive guess=17.83better than naive×1.78difficulty=+31.74skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 31.74
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 85.21
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 14
3Team Draft Slot CallsJacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to pick “inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft” (picks 1–5)
What happenedPicked at 2100Hit · naive 45.85100this call−45.85a naive guess=54.15better than naive×1.78difficulty=+96.39skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 23 the year before
- skill:
- 96.39
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 45.85
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- inside the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
95.1naive 71.1
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
Carney predicts Geno Smith signs with the Vikings and starts for them, that at least four of the fringe veteran quarterbacks (Tua, Kyler, Cousins, Fields, Geno) will be starters next season, and that Mike Evans stays with Tampa Bay. They also rank their top fantasy wide receivers and comments on running back landing spots and trade values.Dalton Feely · Trade and Signing Calls · Chris Godwin Jr. · Hit 100
Feenie predicted Chris Godwin stays in Tampa Bay, Josh Sweat reunites with Jonathan Gannon in Arizona, Ronnie Stanley signs with New England, Jevon Holland lands in Indianapolis, Khalil Mack joins Washington, Asante Samuel Jr. goes to San Francisco, Najee Harris to the Raiders and Bobby Wagner to Dallas.Eric Mangini · Game Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 0
Mangini picked New England to beat Green Bay by more than a field goal, flagged Tampa Bay as their upset alert over Chicago, expects Kansas City to handle the Jets, took Buffalo over Minnesota, backed Cincinnati over Atlanta in Madrid, and updated their Super Bowl to Rams–Bengals.Nick Wright · Game Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 0
Wright argued the Jaguars are the AFC's most complete team, calling them the considerable favorite for the No. 1 seed and the only club essentially locked into the playoffs. They also picked Tampa Bay to upset Chicago, had Kansas City sweeping its next three games, liked New England over Green Bay by about a field goal, and updated their Super Bowl matchup to Chiefs–49ers.Donte Johnson · Game Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 0
The former NFL safety picked the Buccaneers to upset the Bears in their Week 9 matchup, arguing Todd Bowles' defense would frustrate Caleb Williams.Zac Cornelius · Score Predictions · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 29
Zach projected the Buccaneers to beat the Bears 24-12.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Daniel DiBerardinis · Division Winners · Atlanta Falcons · Miss 0
Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. They also give a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · New York Giants · Miss 0
Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. They also expect Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and they float the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Los Angeles Chargers · Miss 0
Cowherd unveiled their top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. They also name the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.Cynthia Frelund · Division Winners · Houston Texans · Miss 0
Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; they also see the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.