Buck Sexton#18 of 21 election pundits · Nov 7, 2022
Discussing Virginia's 7th congressional district, they said Yesli Vega has a very strong chance of beating their Democratic opponent, framing a Vega victory as a sign of a broader Republican night.
Said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton ShowHear the original
0Miss · out of 100
Abigail A. Spanberger wonWhat happenedcalled Yesli I. Vega
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
What Buck Sexton said
we think she is going to have a very very good chance of winning
- Where it was said
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
- The episode
- Daily Review with Clay and Buck - Nov 7 2022
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 7, 2022
- Election DayNov 8, 2022
- GradedOct 9, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Yesli Vega to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7
What happenedAbigail A. Spanberger woncalled Yesli I. Vega0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1difficulty=−100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-house-va-07
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- a very very good chance of winning
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Abigail A. Spanberger
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Yesli I. Vega
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Clay Travis · Race Winners · Hit 100
Clay Travis predicted a Republican sweep in Tennessee — Blackburn for governor, Hagerty for Senate and all nine House seats — said they were optimistic Republicans would flip the Michigan Senate seat from Democrats, and expected the Republican to win the New Hampshire governor's race.