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Clay Travis#15 of 21 election pundits · Nov 3, 2026

Clay Travis predicted a Republican sweep in Tennessee — Blackburn for governor, Hagerty for Senate and all nine House seats — said they were optimistic Republicans would flip the Michigan Senate seat from Democrats, and expected the Republican to win the New Hampshire governor's race.

Said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton ShowHear the original

3 of 4calls landed3 hits · 1 miss · 1 too vague to check
75Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4Races calledevery call on each below
#15Clay Travis’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Clay Travis said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Marsha Blackburn is going to be the governor. Bill Hagerty is going to be the senator. All nine congressional districts are going red.
Clay Travis, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The episode
Hour 1 - Feelin' Good on Election Day
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidNov 3
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10
  1. 1Marsha Blackburn to win the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election“Marsha Blackburn is going to be the governor.”
  2. 2Republican to win the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election“I think the Republican gubernatorial candidate is expected to win in New Hampshire”
  3. 3Bill Hagerty to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Tennessee“Bill Hagerty is going to be the senator.”
  4. 4Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan“I hope and I am optimistic that we are going to flip Michigan and we're going to take a Democrat seat there.”
  5. 5Republicans to win“We're going to turn the entire state of Tennessee red, all nine congressional districts”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Marsha Blackburn to win the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election1Race WinnersMarsha Blackburn won1001000
Republican to win the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election2Race WinnersKelly Ayotte won1001000
Bill Hagerty to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Tennessee3Race WinnersBill Hagerty won1001000
Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan4Race WinnersAbdul El-Sayed won0100−100
Republicans to win5Race Winners————
5 calls · 3 hits · 1 miss · 1 too vague to check75100

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 claims — 5 race winners — the 4 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 4 calls we can check have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Race Winners

    Marsha Blackburn to win the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election

    What happenedMarsha Blackburn woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-governor-tn
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Marsha Blackburn
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Marsha Blackburn
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Race Winners

    Republican to win the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

    What happenedKelly Ayotte woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-governor-nh
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Kelly Ayotte
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Kelly Ayotte
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Race Winners

    Bill Hagerty to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Tennessee

    What happenedBill Hagerty woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-senate-tn
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Bill Hagerty
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Tennessee
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Bill Hagerty
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Race Winners

    Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan

    What happenedAbdul El-Sayed woncalled Mike Rogers
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2026-senate-mi
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    −100
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Abdul El-Sayed
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Mike Rogers
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Race Winners

    Republicans to win

    VerdictToo vague to check

    Too vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.

    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    75naive 100

The races in this take

every call on each
Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.