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Jesse KellyNov 4, 2022

Kelly predicted Republicans would end up with 54 Senate seats and pick up well over 40 House seats in the midterms.

Said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton ShowHear the original

0 of 2calls landed2 misses · all settled
0Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
67.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Jesse Kelly said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
We will have fifty four Senate seats. We will pick up well north of forty seats in the half.
Jesse Kelly, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
The episode
Daily Review with Clay and Buck - Nov 4 2022
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidNov 4, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026
  1. 1Seat Counts“We will pick up well north of forty seats in the half the twenty thirty thirty five, it will be over four.”
  2. 2Seat Counts“We will have fifty four Senate seats.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“We will pick up well north of forty seats in the half the…”1Seat Counts9055−55
“We will have fifty four Senate seats.”2Seat Counts49080−80
2 calls · 2 misses · all settled067.5

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 67.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Seat Counts

    “We will pick up well north of forty seats in the half the twenty thirty thirty five, it will be over four.”

    What happened9called well north of forty seats
    0Miss · naive 55
    0this call55a naive guess−55worse than naive1difficulty−55skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2022
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    222
    skill:
    −55
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    9
    in their words:
    well north of forty seats
    read as:
    as written
    result from:
    house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
    chamber:
    2022-house
    what they counted:
    net seats
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    55
    days before the vote when called:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    seats before:
    213
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    their range:
    40 to 435
    the naive guess said:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Seat Counts

    “We will have fifty four Senate seats.”

    What happened49called 54
    0Miss · naive 80
    0this call80a naive guess−80worse than naive1difficulty−80skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2022
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    49
    skill:
    −80
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    49
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2022-senate
    what they counted:
    seats held
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    80
    they said:
    54
    days before the vote when called:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    seats before:
    50
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the naive guess said:
    50
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    0naive 67.5
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More seat counts

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