Erick-Woods Erickson· Oct 22, 2024
Erickson argues that Harris's late-campaign travel to Texas, Kentucky and Florida — states he says she cannot carry — mirrors Bob Dole's 1996 pivot to down-ballot races, signaling she will lose the presidency to Trump while trying to protect congressional seats.
“It signals the presidential race is all but over.”
published in writing · Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 4 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“Harris and her team have decided to go to Texas, Kentucky, and Florida — three states she will not win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-tx
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“Harris and her team have decided to go to Texas, Kentucky, and Florida — three states she will not win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-ky
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Kentucky
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“Harris and her team have decided to go to Texas, Kentucky, and Florida — three states she will not win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-fl
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“But this is not what a winning campaign does in the last twelve days of the campaign... Harris is giving up trying to win the White House... It signals the presidential race is all but over.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.
- Henry OlsenRace WinnersHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- Tim MillerRace WinnersMiss · 0Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats.