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Sam RobinsonOct 30, 2026

Discussing the Michigan races, they said Democratic state senator Jeremy Moss will win the open Michigan 11th congressional district seat being vacated by Haley Stevens.

Said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and SaagarHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Jeremy Moss wonWhat happenedcalled, not yet certified
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Sam Robinson said

People like State Senator Jeremy Moss, he's going to end up being in Congress replacing Haley Stevens in Michigan's 11th Congressional District.
Our reading: Jeremy Moss to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Michigan's district 11
Where it was said
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
The episode
10/30/26: More Midterm Madness, Pelosi Attacks Abdul, Binance 6 Billion Hack, Mai Vang, Angela Gonzales-Torres
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 30
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Jeremy Moss to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Michigan's district 11

    What happenedJeremy Moss woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-house-mi-11
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Jeremy Moss
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 U.S. House election in Michigan's district 11
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Jeremy Moss
    days before the vote when called:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

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