Daniel Jeremiah· Feb 19, 2026

In a pre-combine media Q&A, Jeremiah lays out his draft board: he expects an edge rusher to go early (Jets at 2, Arizona at 3), ranks Ruben Bain third among the top edge trio, sees Ty Simpson as the second quarterback with a 30s-40s grade, places Fernando Mendoza above the 2023 class's top three, and predicts specific players' landing spots and rounds.

“I will be a little surprised if if we don't see one of them go.”

said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

18 checkable claims — 8 mock draft picks, 5 combine measurements, 2 position order calls, 1 depth chart call, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

11 of 18 have settled so far, averaging 64.8 out of 100, against 44.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Their call against what happened

overall pick

third round pick (picks 65–100)They said

63What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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Who this take is about

18 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Mock Draft Picks Jake SlaughterFeb 19, 2026
Jake Slaughter to be picked “third round pick” (picks 65–100)
“Jake Slaughter from Florida I think would have a chance as a third round pick to come in and get on the field right away.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Jake Slaughter
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
63
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
third round pick (picks 65–100)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Sam HechtFeb 19, 2026
Sam Hecht to be picked “late second, early third round range” (picks 33–100)
“Sam Heckt from from Kansas State, I think can start day one. He probably goes in the late second, early third, round range.”
Miss · 15Scored 14.87a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Sam Hecht
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
14.87
baseline:
50
actual pick:
144
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
14.87
predicted pick:
late second, early third round range (picks 33–100)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Combine Measurements Kenyon SadiqFeb 19, 2026
“He's just not gonna be as big. He's gonna be around six foot three, two hundred and forty five pounds.”
Close · 70Scored 69.71a naive guess scored 50.76+18.95 skill
How this was scored
off:
4
drill:
weight lbs
naive:
the average TE (248.52, from 151 results)
scale:
credit halves every 7.68 — one standard deviation for a TE
skill:
18.95
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
result:
241
season:
2025
combine year:
2026
accuracy:
69.71
baseline:
50.76
predicted:
245
sigmas out:
0.52
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Think this is wrong?
Combine Measurements Cashius HowellFeb 19, 2026
Cashius Howell to post low four to fives, potentially even faster at the combine
“and then I think he might run in the low four to fives, potentially even faster than that.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
claim:
low four to fives, potentially even faster
drill:
forty time
naive:
the EDGE median (4.68) misses it
skill:
0
player:
Cashius Howell
result:
4.59
season:
2025
combine year:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Treydan StukesFeb 19, 2026
Treydan Stukes to be picked “third round” (picks 65–100)
“they've got a really good player there in Trading stukes who's a little bit. OLDER i think's probably goes in the third. Round”
Miss · 31Scored 31.05a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Treydan Stukes
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
31.05
baseline:
50
actual pick:
38
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
31.05
predicted pick:
third round (picks 65–100)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Malachi FieldsFeb 19, 2026
Malachi Fields to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
“Malachi Fields probably goes in the second round”
Close · 65Scored 64.84a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Malachi Fields
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
64.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
74
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
64.84
predicted pick:
second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Max KlareFeb 19, 2026
Max Klare to be picked at number 62
“Max clair is my favorite of the, bunch but that would that would be at pick sixty. TWO i think that's a great value for, him would be at pick sixty two”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Max Klare
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
61
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
62
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Team Draft Slot Calls New York JetsFeb 19, 2026
New York Jets to pick at number 2
“I think the Jets are a kind of a prime candidate to take one there at two”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 80.52+19.48 skill
How this was scored
team:
NYJ
draft:
2026
naive:
they picked 7 the year before
skill:
19.48
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
80.52
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Denzel BostonFeb 19, 2026
Denzel Boston to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“Denzel Boston is going to go in the first round”
Close · 74Scored 73.84a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Denzel Boston
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
73.84
baseline:
50
actual pick:
39
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
73.84
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Ty SimpsonFeb 19, 2026
Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board
“But I think he's clearly the second quarterback in this draft class.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 39.7+60.3 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
skill:
60.3
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
39.7
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Rueben BainFeb 19, 2026
Rueben Bain to be 3rd edge rusher off the board
“I would say most people would have him as the third.”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 15.85+54.86 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 26 at random averages 15.85
skill:
54.86
player:
Rueben Bain
season:
2025
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
70.71
baseline:
15.85
position:
edge rusher
class size:
26
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
3
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Combine Measurements Brandon CisseFeb 19, 2026
Brandon Cisse to post might run in the four two at the combine
“csa From South, carolina super super. Explosive he might run in the four, two”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Fernando Mendoza Las Vegas RaidersFeb 19, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st on the depth chart
“if you, assume as we all, do That Fernando mendoz is off the, board”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Trade and Signing Calls Tyler LinderbaumFeb 19, 2026
Tyler Linderbaum to move
“Because everybody that I talked to seems to sneaks to be in on Tyler Linderbaum. So it sounds like he's gonna have a robust market.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Ty SimpsonFeb 19, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “thirties forties range”
“For me, I have him as you know, he's in the you know, thirties forties range. For me, it's just a pure grade.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Combine Measurements C.J. AllenFeb 19, 2026
C.J. Allen to post like the four fives at the combine
“I think he'll run like the four fives once we get a chance to see him in Indy.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Sonny StylesFeb 19, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked “won't make it to pick 19”
“WELL i would say if somehow the league was dumb enough for Sunny styles to fall, There Dan morgan would lose his linebacker card if he didn't run that pick up. There BUT i. DON'T i don't think he's gonna make it. There”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Combine Measurements Denzel BostonFeb 19, 2026
Denzel Boston to post mid four fours at the combine
“RUN i bet he runs in the four, fours you, know mid four fours at that, Size”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

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