Ryan Wormeli#52 of 87 NFL pundits · May 31, 2025
Warmley expects Derrick Henry to post another huge rushing season in Baltimore, sees real upside in Brian Robinson Jr. as Washington's lead back, and calls Javonte Williams, Justice Hill, Jordan Mason and Bijan Robinson values at their current costs.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Ryan Wormeli said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromif he's healthy this year, he's scoring another twelve touchdowns, He's getting fifteen hundred rushing yards in a healthy season
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - Will Saquon Barkley Bust? | The Top 50 Running Backs for the 2025 Season (Ep. 1580)
- The original
- Hear the original
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- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidMay 31, 2025
- GradedAug 5–19, 2026
- 1Bijan Robinson to outplay his draft cost (third or fourth pick)“I think Bjeon is going to win leagues this year, especially if you're getting him like third or fourth pick in your drafts”
- 2Justice Hill to outplay his draft cost (RB sixty six)“Justin Hill is going he is going to outperform MARB sixty six if he's healthy. I guarantee you”
- 3Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)“I wonder if Javonte Williams is a screaming value at RB thirty seven, even if it feels gross to draft him... I will be ranking him ahead of RB thirty seven. I guarantee it”
- 4Jordan Mason to outplay his draft cost (outside the top forty running backs)“I like Jordan Mason a lot. If he's going out to the top forty running backs”
- 5Brian Robinson to record 12 rushing tds“I could see a real path to like twelve hundred yards and twelve touchdowns this season”
- 6Brian Robinson to record 1,200 rushing yards“If Brian Robinson is the lead back in this offense, like I could see a real path to like twelve hundred yards and twelve touchdowns this season”
- 7Derrick Henry to record 12 rushing tds“if he's healthy this year, he's scoring another twelve touchdowns”
- 8Derrick Henry to record 1,500 rushing yards“he was amazing last year and if he's healthy this year, he's scoring another twelve touchdowns, He's getting fifteen hundred rushing yards in a healthy season”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson to outplay his draft cost (third or fourth pick)1 | Sleeper Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Justice Hill to outplay his draft cost (RB sixty six)2 | Sleeper Calls | — | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)3 | Sleeper Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Jordan Mason to outplay his draft cost (outside the top forty running backs)4 | Sleeper Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Brian Robinson to record 12 rushing tds5 | Player Season Numbers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brian Robinson to record 1,200 rushing yards6 | Player Season Numbers | 400 | 0 | 35.85 | −71.7 | |
| Derrick Henry to record 12 rushing tds7 | Player Season Numbers | 16 | 50 | 28.96 | +42.07 | |
| Derrick Henry to record 1,500 rushing yards8 | Player Season Numbers | 1,595 | 88.09 | 44.19 | +87.8 | |
| 8 calls · 4 hits · 1 close call · 3 misses · all settled | 54.8 | 26.1 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 4 player season numbers and 4 sleeper calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 have settled, averaging 54.8 out of 100, against 26.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Sleeper CallsBijan RobinsonAtlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson to outplay his draft cost (third or fourth pick)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- third or fourth pick
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Bijan Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB4
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
2Sleeper CallsJustice HillBaltimore Ravens
Justice Hill to outplay his draft cost (RB sixty six)
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB sixty six
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Justice Hill
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB42
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB66
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
3Sleeper CallsJavonte WilliamsDallas Cowboys
Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB thirty seven
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Javonte Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB11
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
4Sleeper CallsJordan MasonMinnesota Vikings
Jordan Mason to outplay his draft cost (outside the top forty running backs)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- outside the top forty running backs
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jordan Mason
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB33
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB33
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
5Player Season NumbersBrian RobinsonWashington Commanders
Brian Robinson to record 12 rushing tds
What happened2called 120Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 6.32
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 2
- player:
- Brian Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 12
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 8
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.63
- zero at percent out:
- 50
6Player Season NumbersBrian RobinsonWashington Commanders
Brian Robinson to record 1,200 rushing yards
What happened400called 1,2000Miss · naive 35.850this call−35.85a naive guess=−35.85worse than naive×2difficulty=−71.7skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 588.89
- skill:
- −71.7
- what happened:
- 400
- player:
- Brian Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 35.85
- they said:
- 1200
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 799
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 378.78
- zero at percent out:
- 50
7Player Season NumbersDerrick HenryBaltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry to record 12 rushing tds
What happened16called 1250Close · naive 28.9650this call−28.96a naive guess=21.04better than naive×2difficulty=+42.07skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 10.32
- skill:
- 42.07
- what happened:
- 16
- player:
- Derrick Henry
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 28.96
- they said:
- 12
- statistic:
- rushing_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 16
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 4.63
- zero at percent out:
- 50
8Player Season NumbersDerrick HenryBaltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry to record 1,500 rushing yards
What happened1,595called 1,50088.09Hit · naive 44.1988.09this call−44.19a naive guess=43.9better than naive×2difficulty=+87.8skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 1149.89
- skill:
- 87.8
- what happened:
- 1595
- player:
- Derrick Henry
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 88.09
- baseline:
- 44.19
- they said:
- 1500
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1921
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 378.78
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
54.8naive 26.1
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Gilberto Manzano · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Manzano picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · Travis Hunter · Hit 100
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Sleeper Calls · Tyler Warren · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Pat Fitzmaurice · Sleeper Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.Joe Pisapia · Sleeper Calls · Tyreek Hill · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Jake Ciely · Sleeper Calls · Braelon Allen · Miss 0
Counting down their top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.