Armin Thomas· Oct 28, 2022

Rates the 2022 Utah Senate race between Mike Lee and independent Evan McMullin as Likely Republican, calling Lee the clear and overwhelming favorite, and projects the likeliest result to be a Lee win by single digits (closest to the "red ripple" Lee +8 scenario).

“Split Ticket projects that the likeliest outcome of the race is a Lee victory by single digits, closer to the red ripple scenario outlined previously.”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 1 race margin and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 93 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race MarginsOct 28, 2022
“Split Ticket projects that the likeliest outcome of the race is a Lee victory by single digits, closer to the red ripple scenario outlined previously.”
Hit · 86Scored 85.9a naive guess scored 0+86.76 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-senate-ut
election year:
2022
skill:
86.76
topic:
elections
what happened:
10.41
in their words:
a Lee victory by single digits
read as:
as written
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mike Lee
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Mike Lee
accuracy:
85.9
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Utah
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
10.41
their party:
Republican
their range:
0 to 9
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 28, 2022
“assess the possible outcomes of this election, which we rate as Likely Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-ut
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Likely Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mike Lee
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Utah
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Lee
days before the vote when called:
10
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.