Michael DuncanNov 8, 2022
Duncan said Republicans would beat Abigail Spanberger in Virginia's 7th District, but predicted Blake Masters would fall short against Mark Kelly in Arizona's Senate race.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Ruthless PodcastHear the original
What Michael Duncan said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI hate to say this. I think maybe Blake comes up a little little short.
- Where it was said
- Ruthless Podcast
- The episode
- Game Day
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 8, 2022
- Election DayNov 8, 2022
- GradedOct 9, 2026
- 1Mark Kelly to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona“I hate to say this. I think maybe Blake comes up a little little short.”
- 2Republicans to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7“But I think given the fact that it's like a d plus one, d plus two district, I think we got her.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Kelly to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona1 | Race Winners | Mark Kelly won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Republicans to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 72 | Race Winners | Abigail A. Spanberger won | 0 | 100 | −100 | |
| 2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled | 50 | 100 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Mark Kelly to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
What happenedMark Kelly woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-senate-az
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Mark Kelly
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Mark Kelly
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Republicans to win the 2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7
What happenedAbigail A. Spanberger woncalled Yesli I. Vega0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1difficulty=−100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-house-va-07
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Abigail A. Spanberger
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Yesli I. Vega
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 100
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.