Lakshya Jain· Oct 30, 2022
Despite his site's new nonpartisan polling average showing a razor-thin Democratic lead, he said he expects Republicans to win the national House popular vote and considers them clear favorites to take the House majority.
“We believe Republicans are on track to win the popular vote, are clear favorites to win the House, and have 50/50 odds of taking back the Senate.”
published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 house popular vote margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Control of CongressOct 30, 2022
“We believe Republicans are on track to win the popular vote, are clear favorites to win the House”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- clear favorites to win the House
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2022-house
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
- House Popular Vote MarginsOct 30, 2022
“We believe Republicans are on track to win the popular vote”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
More control of congress
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tom BevanControl of CongressHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Megyn KellyControl of CongressHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- David SacksControl of CongressMiss · 0Sacks forecast a good night for Republicans, saying they would win the House and also take the Senate, driven by the economy and inflation.
- Jim GeraghtyControl of CongressHit · 100Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Simon RosenbergControl of CongressHit · 100Rosenberg, quoted from a weekend post, argued the nonpartisan Senate polling showed no red wave and that Democrats remained favored to win the Senate.
- Doug SchoenControl of CongressHit · 100Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida.