Sam KienzleJan 24, 2026
Iowa Sam had the Patriots winning and covering 20-13 in Denver and the Rams winning outright at Seattle 24-21, sticking with their preseason pick of the Rams as Super Bowl champions. They also took the Falcons for most wins next season.
Said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Sam Kienzle said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI picked the La Rams as a Super Bowl champion.
- Where it was said
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)
- The episode
- C&R - Championship Picks, Abba & Brainwave!
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 23
- GradedAug 7–17
- 1Los Angeles Rams 24 — Seattle 21“So I'm gonna say Rams win outright, twenty four twenty one”
- 2Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl“I picked the La Rams as a Super Bowl champion. Wow, So I have to roll with them.”
- 3New England Patriots 20 — Broncos 13“I'm going to say that the Patriots win and cover twenty to thirteen over the Broncos”
- 4Season Win Totals“I mean, I'm gonna go with the Falcons because if they have beat On Robinson and they have a head coach”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams 24 — Seattle 211 | Score Predictions | — | 47.62 | 95.3 | −47.69 | |
| Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl2 | Super Bowl Picks | SEA won it | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| New England Patriots 20 — Broncos 133 | Score Predictions | — | 90.48 | 47.69 | +42.79 | |
| “I mean, I'm gonna go with the Falcons because if they have beat…”4 | Season Win Totals | — | — | — | — | |
| 4 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · 1 too vague to check | 46 | 47.7 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 claims — 2 score predictions, 1 season win total and 1 super bowl pick — the 3 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 calls we can check have settled, averaging 46 out of 100, against 47.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Score PredictionsLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams 24 — Seattle 21
VerdictClose47.62Close · naive 95.347.62this call−95.3a naive guess=−47.68worse than naive×1difficulty=−47.69skillClosing line (Jan 25): Seahawks by 2.5, total 45.5 · this 24–21 calls a Rams win (by 3; the line gave the Rams 44%) and fewer points (45).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- −47.69
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 47.62
- baseline:
- 95.3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 3
2Super Bowl PicksLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl
What happenedSEA won itpicked LAR0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Score PredictionsNew England Patriots
New England Patriots 20 — Broncos 13
VerdictHit90.48Hit · naive 47.6990.48this call−47.69a naive guess=42.79better than naive×1difficulty=+42.79skillClosing line (Jan 25): Patriots by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 20–13 calls a bigger Patriots win (by 7) and fewer points (33). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 10-7
- skill:
- 42.79
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 90.48
- baseline:
- 47.69
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 7
4Season Win TotalsAtlanta Falcons
“I mean, I'm gonna go with the Falcons because if they have beat On Robinson and they have a head coach”
VerdictToo vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
46naive 47.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be taken No. 1 overall by the Raiders and to be thrown into the starting lineup immediately, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta within weeks.Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick and land with the Raiders, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta.JP Acosta · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Acosta expects John Harbaugh's Giants to jump to roughly seven wins in year one, and forecast several offseason moves: Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh, Daniel Jones returning to the Colts, Kirk Cousins being released by Atlanta, and Brandon Aiyuk leaving San Francisco.Gregg Rosenthal · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Rosenthal gave their award ballot: Drake May atop their MVP list (though they expect Matthew Stafford to actually win), Myles Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year, Bijan Robinson for Offensive Player of the Year, Tetairoa McMillan for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Carson Schwesinger for Defensive Rookie of the Year, Mike Macdonald for Coach of the Year and Broncos O-line coach Zach Strief for Assistant Coach of the Year. They also expect Kirk Cousins to be cut by Atlanta.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd believes Matt Stafford's public negotiation posturing means he ultimately stays in Los Angeles, and he flags Travis Hunter as a high draft pick who could underachieve because trying to play both cornerback and receiver full-time will hurt him.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.