Andrew Erickson#30 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 17, 2026
Erickson gave their 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as their WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. They also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Andrew Erickson said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo pick nine, I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Pick ten, Devon a Chan... Pick eleven is take one Barkley... And then pick twelve, mister Christian McCaffrey.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - Projecting the First Round | The Top 12 Fantasy Football Players in 2026 (Ep. 1939)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 17
- GradedAug 5–Sep 18
- 1A.J. Brown to move“AJJ Brown is gone, like he's not coming back to the Philadelphia Eagles”
- 2Fantasy Rankings“Yes, going with Jeon Robinson... So he's my number two player [Gibbs]... My number one wide receiver is Jamar Chase... So James Cook for me is number four... I got Jackson Smith and Jig Pooka, Nakua, Jonathan Taylor, and Cede Lamb rounding out picks five through eight... So pick nine, I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Pick ten, Devon a Chan. Pick eleven is take one Barkley... And then pick twelve, mister Christian McCaffrey.”
- 3Ja'Marr Chase to record 15 receiving tds“and that means Chase is going to catch fifteen, sixty, maybe twenty touchdowns”
- 4Joe Burrow to record 45 passing tds“I wouldn't blink twice if Joe Burrow throws forty five touchdowns next year if he's healthy”
- 5James Cook to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points“they're like, no, we're playing James Hook on third downs Now, I could see him being a top three finisher again.”
- 6DeVonta Smith to be 1st on the depth chart“so you have Devonte Smith stepping in as a wide receiver One.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown to move1 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| “Yes, going with Jeon Robinson... So he's my number two player…”2 | Fantasy Rankings | — | 56.25 | 50 | +6.25 | |
| Ja'Marr Chase to record 15 receiving tds3 | Player Season Numbers | 8 | 6.67 | 56.87 | −50.21 | |
| Joe Burrow to record 45 passing tds4 | Player Season Numbers | 17 | 0 | 20.05 | −20.05 | |
| James Cook to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points5 | Positional Finishes | Finished #5 | 83.33 | 83.33 | 0 | |
| DeVonta Smith to be 1st on the depth chart6 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 2 | 91.67 | 91.67 | 0 | |
| 6 calls · 3 hits · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled | 56.3 | 50.3 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 checkable claims — 2 player season numbers, 1 depth chart call, 1 fantasy ranking, 1 positional finish and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 56.3 out of 100, against 50.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Trade and Signing CallsA.J. Brown
A.J. Brown to move
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- A.J. Brown
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- PHI
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- reported:
- traded → NE (from PHI)
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
“Yes, going with Jeon Robinson... So he's my number two player [Gibbs]... My number one wide receiver is Jamar Chase... So James Cook for me is number four... I got Jackson Smith and Jig Pooka, Nakua, Jonathan Taylor, and Cede Lamb rounding out picks five through eight... So pick nine, I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Pick ten, Devon a Chan. Pick eleven is take one Barkley... And then pick twelve, mister Christian McCaffrey.”
VerdictClose56.25Close · naive 5056.25this call−50a naive guess=6.25better than naive×1difficulty=+6.25skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 6.25
- placed:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 56.25
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- RB 7: 57.14, WR 5: 55
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Player Season NumbersJa'Marr ChaseCincinnati Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase to record 15 receiving tds
What happened8called 156.67Miss · naive 56.876.67this call−56.87a naive guess=−50.2worse than naive×1difficulty=−50.21skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 10.2
- skill:
- −50.21
- what happened:
- 8
- player:
- Ja'Marr Chase
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 6.67
- baseline:
- 56.87
- they said:
- 15
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- 17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
4Player Season NumbersJoe BurrowCincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow to record 45 passing tds
What happened17called 450Miss · naive 20.050this call−20.05a naive guess=−20.05worse than naive×1difficulty=−20.05skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 28.32
- skill:
- −20.05
- what happened:
- 17
- player:
- Joe Burrow
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 20.05
- they said:
- 45
- statistic:
- passing_tds
- difficulty:
- 1
- last season:
- 43
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- position average:
- 13.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
5Positional FinishesJames CookBuffalo Bills
James Cook to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #5called #3 · by fantasy points83.33Hit · naive 83.3383.33this call−83.33a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- James Cook
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 7
- actual finish:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- predicted finish:
- 3
6Depth Chart CallsDeVonta SmithPhiladelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 2called No. 1 · by receptions91.67Hit · naive 91.6791.67this call−91.67a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- PHI
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- DeVonta Smith
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
56.3naive 50.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 62
Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 74
Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17.
More player season numbers
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Player Season Numbers · Tyler Shough · Miss 4
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Chris Broussard · Player Season Numbers · Myles Garrett · Hit 92
Broussard expects Lamar Jackson to play well but not vintage — two touchdown passes and no picks — while Derrick Henry carries the load with over 100 rushing yards. They also take the Browns to upset the Bengals and believes Myles Garrett gets at least two sacks to break the single-season record.Nick Wright · Player Season Numbers · Myles Garrett · Hit 100
Wright picks the Steelers to beat the Ravens outright in Pittsburgh, takes Seattle over San Francisco, and thinks the Browns lose to Cincinnati even as Myles Garrett gets the sack record.Nick Wright · Player Season Numbers · Myles Garrett · Hit 84
Nick Wright says Myles Garrett is playing at an all-time level and might reach 25 sacks this season, and among their weekly picks they expect the Bears to beat the Steelers in an ugly low-margin home win and Seattle to win comfortably at Tennessee.Rich Eisen · Player Season Numbers · Micah Parsons · Close 56
Eisen made a series of picks: Micah Parsons will out-sack any two Cowboys combined (after initially leaning the other way), the NFC North is more likely to produce a Super Bowl team than the NFC East, Eagles wins will outnumber Cowboys losses, Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton will out-touchdown Cam Ward/Calvin Ridley, and Marvin Harrison Jr./James Conner will beat Kamara/Olave in yards and TDs. They also picked the AFC West order and said Deion Sanders is more likely than Bill Belichick to have a winning record.Daniel Jeremiah · Player Season Numbers · Jihaad Campbell · Miss 0
Jeremiah walked through their mock draft 3.0, slotting Cam Ward first overall to Tennessee, Abdul Carter to Cleveland at two, Shedeur Sanders to the Giants at three and Travis Hunter to New England at four, plus roughly twenty other first-round pairings. They also called Matthew Golden the first receiver off the board, said Tyler Booker would climb back into the latter third of the first round, expected Kirk Cousins to be traded, thought Jaire Alexander's Packers days were numbered, and predicted Cam Robinson would start at left tackle in Houston.