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Andrew Erickson· Jan 17, 2026

Erickson gave his 2026 first-round board, leaning on running backs early with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase as his WR1 and Christian McCaffrey slipping to 12. He also touted Malik Nabers as a buying opportunity, projected big touchdown numbers for Burrow and Chase, and called Barkley a buy-low.

“So pick nine, I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Pick ten, Devon a Chan... Pick eleven is take one Barkley... And then pick twelve, mister Christian McCaffrey.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

6 checkable claims — 2 player season numbers, 1 depth chart call, 1 fantasy ranking, 1 positional finishe and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 56.3 out of 100, against 50.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Trade and Signing CallsA.J. BrownJan 17, 2026

    A.J. Brown to move

    “AJJ Brown is gone, like he's not coming back to the Philadelphia Eagles”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    200
    player:
    A.J. Brown
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he leaves
    was with:
    PHI
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    reported:
    traded → NE (from PHI)
    settled by:
    a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he stays where he is
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

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  • Fantasy RankingsJan 17, 2026

    “Yes, going with Jeon Robinson... So he's my number two player [Gibbs]... My number one wide receiver is Jamar Chase... So James Cook for me is number four... I got Jackson Smith and Jig Pooka, Nakua, Jonathan Taylor, and Cede Lamb rounding out picks five through eight... So pick nine, I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Pick ten, Devon a Chan. Pick eleven is take one Barkley... And then pick twelve, mister Christian McCaffrey.”

    Close · 56Scored 56.25a naive guess scored 50+6.25 skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    6.25
    placed:
    12
    season:
    2025
    players:
    12
    accuracy:
    56.25
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    RB 7: 57.14, WR 5: 55
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    0

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  • Player Season NumbersJa'Marr ChaseCincinnati BengalsJan 17, 2026

    Ja'Marr Chase to record 15 receiving tds

    “and that means Chase is going to catch fifteen, sixty, maybe twenty touchdowns”

    Miss · 7Scored 6.67a naive guess scored 56.87-50.21 skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    10.2
    skill:
    -50.21
    what happened:
    8
    player:
    Ja'Marr Chase
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    6.67
    baseline:
    56.87
    predicted:
    15
    statistic:
    receiving_tds
    difficulty:
    1
    last season:
    17
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    position average:
    3.4
    zero at percent out:
    50

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  • Player Season NumbersJoe BurrowCincinnati BengalsJan 17, 2026

    Joe Burrow to record 45 passing tds

    “I wouldn't blink twice if Joe Burrow throws forty five touchdowns next year if he's healthy”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 20.05-20.05 skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    28.32
    skill:
    -20.05
    what happened:
    17
    player:
    Joe Burrow
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    20.05
    predicted:
    45
    statistic:
    passing_tds
    difficulty:
    1
    last season:
    43
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    position average:
    13.64
    zero at percent out:
    50

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  • Positional FinishesJames CookBuffalo BillsJan 17, 2026

    James Cook to finish top 3 at his position, by fantasy points

    “they're like, no, we're playing James Hook on third downs Now, I could see him being a top three finisher again.”

    Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 83.33+0 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    player:
    James Cook
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    12
    accuracy:
    83.33
    baseline:
    83.33
    position:
    RB
    ranked by:
    fantasy points
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    7
    actual finish:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    0
    predicted finish:
    3

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  • Depth Chart CallsDeVonta SmithPhiladelphia EaglesJan 17, 2026

    DeVonta Smith to be 1st on the depth chart

    “so you have Devonte Smith stepping in as a wide receiver One.”

    Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    PHI
    skill:
    0
    player:
    DeVonta Smith
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    91.67
    baseline:
    91.67
    position:
    WR
    naive slot:
    1
    actual slot:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    measured by:
    receptions
    the naive guess:
    where he sat last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0

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