Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 1, 2026
Wright predicted a high-scoring Chiefs win over the Raiders around 31-24, forecast a Bills blowout of the Patriots (31-13) with Jacksonville winning outright at Cincinnati, restated their Eagles Super Bowl pick (built on an expectation they'd have the NFL's No. 1 defense), and said Joey Porter Jr. will end up signing roughly a $30 million-a-year deal in Dallas. They also laid out their Mahomes Mountain quarterback board.
Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Wright said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think this is a high scoring Chiefs in control affair, thirty one twenty four type of game that the Chiefs win.
- Where it was said
- First Things First (podcast)
- The episode
- Joey Porter Jr. traded to Cowboys, Mahomes Mountain, BUD List, Week 4 Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 1
- PlayedOct 4
- GradedOct 5
- 1Buffalo Bills 31 — Patriots 13“The Bills, 31. The Patriots, 13. This one is not close, and it is panic time in New England.”
- 2Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Cincinnati Bengals“The Jags went outright. ... He was playing these Cincinnati Bengals who mangled his lower body”
- 3Kansas City Chiefs 31 — Raiders 24“I think this is a high scoring Chiefs in control affair, thirty one twenty four type of game that the Chiefs win.”
- 4Joey Porter Jr. to stay with Dallas Cowboys“You don't trade a future second round pick for a guy to play for you for two thirds of a season. You do it because you're gonna sign him to a deal. ... it'll be around $30,000,000.”
- 5Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl“my Super Bowl pick Eagles ... I picked them to go to the Super Bowl”
- 6Philadelphia Eagles defense to be the best in the league“One of the reasons ... I picked them to go to the Super Bowl was I thought they would have the number one defense in the NFL.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills 31 — Patriots 131 | Score Predictions | Patriots 29–26 | 14.29 | 45.24 | −56.64 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Cincinnati Bengals2 | Game Outcome Picks | Jaguars 22–17 | 100 | 0 | +183 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs 31 — Raiders 243 | Score Predictions | Chiefs 30–27 | 90.48 | 45.24 | +82.79 | |
| Joey Porter Jr. to stay with Dallas Cowboys4 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl5 | Conference Champions | — | — | — | — | |
| Philadelphia Eagles defense to be the best in the league6 | Position Group Finish | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · 3 waiting | 68.3 | 30.2 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 checkable claims — 2 score predictions, 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick, 1 position group finish and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 68.3 out of 100, against 30.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Score PredictionsBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills 31 — Patriots 13
What happenedPatriots 29–26called Bills by 18 · lost by 314.29Miss · naive 45.2414.29this call−45.24a naive guess=−30.95worse than naive×1.83difficulty=−56.64skillClosing line (Oct 4): Bills by 7, total 49.5 · this 31–13 calls a bigger Bills win (by 18) and fewer points (44).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 29-26
- skill:
- −56.64
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 14.29
- baseline:
- 45.24
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 18
2Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Cincinnati Bengals
What happenedJaguars 22–17Jaguars at Bengals100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.83difficulty=+183skillClosing line (Oct 4): Bengals by 2.5 · underdog pick, Jaguars 43%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 22-17
- skill:
- 183
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CIN
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
3Score PredictionsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs 31 — Raiders 24
What happenedChiefs 30–27called Chiefs by 7 · won by 390.48Hit · naive 45.2490.48this call−45.24a naive guess=45.24better than naive×1.83difficulty=+82.79skillClosing line (Oct 4): Chiefs by 4.5, total 47.5 · this 31–24 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 7) and more points (55).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 30-27
- skill:
- 82.79
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 90.48
- baseline:
- 45.24
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 7
4Trade and Signing CallsJoey Porter Jr.Dallas Cowboys
Joey Porter Jr. to stay with Dallas Cowboys
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Position Group FinishPhiladelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles defense to be the best in the league
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
68.3naive 30.2
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.