Chris Brockman· Mar 2, 2026

Brockman argued four Ohio State players will be taken in the top 10, that Fernando Mendoza will be the first QB off the board and top Tom Brady's 2001 statistical line as a rookie, that Jeremiah Love will beat Ashton Jeanty's rookie production, that tight ends Kenyan Sadiq and Eli Stowers both go top 20, that Ty Simpson is the second QB drafted in round one and starts Week 1, that Jimmy Garoppolo gets the Cardinals over .500, and that Mike Evans leaves Tampa for a contender and goes further in the playoffs than the Bucs.

“Not one, not two, not three, four Ohio State players are gonna go in the top 10 of the first round.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →

15 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks, 3 player season numbers, 2 position order calls, 1 depth chart call, 1 season win total and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

9 of 15 have settled so far, averaging 91 out of 100, against 47 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 3 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the room on 1 and below it on 2.

Where this call stands in the room

Arizona Cardinals · 2026 season · wins

Chris Brockman — 9 winsthe room — 9 calls from 7 punditsmedian 3 wins

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Their call against what happened

overall pick

top 10 of the first round (picks 1–10)They said

7What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

15 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Mock Draft Picks Sonny StylesMar 2, 2026
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10 of the first round” (picks 1–10)
“Not one, not two, not three, four Ohio State players are gonna go in the top 10 of the first round.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 of the first round (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Carnell TateMar 2, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked “top 10 of the first round” (picks 1–10)
“Not one, not two, not three, four Ohio State players are gonna go in the top 10 of the first round.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 of the first round (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Arvell ReeseMar 2, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked “top 10 of the first round” (picks 1–10)
“Not one, not two, not three, four Ohio State players are gonna go in the top 10 of the first round.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 of the first round (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Caleb DownsMar 2, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked “top 10 of the first round” (picks 1–10)
“Not one, not two, not three, four Ohio State players are gonna go in the top 10 of the first round.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
top 10 of the first round (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Kenyon SadiqMar 2, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “top 20” (picks 1–20)
“Tight ends, Rich, Kenyan Sadique, Eli Stowers, they're going in the top 20 both.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Kenyon Sadiq
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
16
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 20 (picks 1–20)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Ty SimpsonMar 2, 2026
Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board
“A lot of talk about the second quarterback, probably gonna be Ty Simpson from Alabama.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 39.7+60.3 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
skill:
60.3
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
39.7
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Ty SimpsonMar 2, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“I also think he's gonna go in the first round, and he's gonna be starting week one for whoever takes him.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ty Simpson
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
13
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks Eli StowersMar 2, 2026
Eli Stowers to be picked “top 20” (picks 1–20)
“Tight ends, Rich, Kenyan Sadique, Eli Stowers, they're going in the top 20 both.”
Miss · 23Scored 22.93a naive guess scored 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Eli Stowers
season:
2026
zero at:
32
accuracy:
22.93
baseline:
50
actual pick:
54
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
22.93
predicted pick:
top 20 (picks 1–20)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
Position Order Calls Fernando MendozaMar 2, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board
“We know who the first quarterback is. Mendoza's gonna be first off the board, Rich.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 33.08+66.92 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
skill:
66.92
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero at:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
33.08
position:
quarterback
class size:
10
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Fernando MendozaMar 2, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to record 18 passing tds
“Fernando Mendoza is gonna have a better statistical rookie season than Tom Brady's 02/2001... 2,900 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 12 picks.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Season Win Totals Arizona CardinalsMar 2, 2026
Arizona Cardinals to finish with 9 wins
“You mentioned, the handsome man, Jimmy g. He's gonna have the cardinals over 500 next year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Ty SimpsonMar 2, 2026
Ty Simpson to be 1st on the depth chart
“he's gonna be starting week one for whoever takes him”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Fernando MendozaMar 2, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to record 2,900 passing yards
“Fernando Mendoza is gonna have a better statistical rookie season than Tom Brady's 02/2001... That's 64% of completions, 2,900 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 12 picks.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Trade and Signing Calls Mike EvansMar 2, 2026
Mike Evans to move
“Doesn't seem like he's gonna be back in Tampa... He's gonna go to a contender.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Jeremiyah LoveMar 2, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to record 55 receptions
“he's gonna have a better 2026 season than last year's touted top 10 running back. Ashton... 1,321 total yards, nearly a thousand rushing, 55 catches, 10 total touchdowns.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

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