Hayes BrownOct 17, 2024
Brown treats West Virginia's open Senate seat as a Republican pickup, leaving the chamber effectively at 50-50 before other races are counted.
Published in writing · Tangle (newsletter)Read the original
100Hit · out of 100
Jim Justice wonWhat happenedcertified result
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+102Skillafter difficulty
What Hayes Brown said
With the GOP set to claim a seat from retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., the upper house is already starting from a 50-50 split.
- Where it was published
- Tangle (newsletter)
- The piece
- SPECIAL EDITION: The state of play in 7 key Senate races.
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 17, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
the GOP to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
What happenedJim Justice woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.02difficulty=+102skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-wv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Independent
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Jim Justice
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jim Justice
- days before the vote when called:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.