Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 21, 2025

Brockman predicts Shedeur Sanders is drafted late in the first round by a good team that doesn't need them right away and will sit as a backup, and says Ashton Jeanty — whom they call the second-best player in the draft behind Travis Hunter — goes in the top five.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting

62.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

63.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3 of 4Settled1 still waiting

#36Chris Brockman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Brockman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

He gets drafted late first round. By a team that's good, I think.

Chris Brockman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode: NFL Draft: It's Too Quiet...Something Insane Is Going To Happen
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidApr 21, 2025
GradedAug 13, 2026

1Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)“I think Ashton Gentry is going in the top five.”
2Shedeur Sanders to be 2nd on the depth chart“I think he's going to be drafted by a team that doesn't immediately need him. I think he's gonna end up sitting”
3Shedeur Sanders to be picked “late first round” (picks 1–32)“He gets drafted late first round. By a team that's good, I think.”
4Top Player Lists“Best players in the draft. Right? Yeah. Travis Hunter is one. I think this kid is number two.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)¹	Mock Draft Picks	Went 6	95.76	50	—
Shedeur Sanders to be 2nd on the depth chart²	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	91.67	91.67	0
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “late first round” (picks 1–32)³	Mock Draft Picks	Went 144	0.78	50	—
“Best players in the draft. Right? Yeah. Travis Hunter is one. I…”⁴	Top Player Lists	—	—	—	—
4 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting			62.7	63.9

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

4 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks, 1 depth chart call and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 62.7 out of 100, against 63.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick

top five (picks 1–5)They said

6What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

1Mock Draft Picks Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
What happenedWent 6
95.76Hit · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Ashton Jeanty
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
95.76
baseline:
50
actual pick:
6
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
95.76
predicted pick:
top five (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
2Depth Chart Calls Shedeur Sanders
Shedeur Sanders to be 2nd on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 2 · by passing yards
91.67Hit · naive 91.67
91.67this call91.67a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
CLE
skill:
0
player:
Shedeur Sanders
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
3Mock Draft Picks Shedeur Sanders
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “late first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 144
0.78Miss · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Shedeur Sanders
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
0.78
baseline:
50
actual pick:
144
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0.78
predicted pick:
late first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
4Top Player Lists
“Best players in the draft. Right? Yeah. Travis Hunter is one. I think this kid is number two.”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
62.7naive 63.9

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

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