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Mara LiassonNov 2, 2026

Liasson said Roy Cooper has essentially locked up the North Carolina Senate race, making it a likely Democratic pickup, and that Republican gerrymanders gave the GOP only a small advantage that may backfire, especially in South Texas.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The NPR Politics PodcastHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Roy Cooper wonWhat happenedcalled, not yet certified
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+100Skillafter difficulty

What Mara Liasson said

And now Roy Cooper, the former Democratic governor there, has that race pretty much sewed up.
Our reading: Roy Cooper to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
Where it was said
The NPR Politics Podcast
The episode
Where things stand as voting winds down
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidNov 2
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Roy Cooper to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina

    What happenedRoy Cooper woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-senate-nc
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    100
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Roy Cooper
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Roy Cooper
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

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