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Nick Shook#67 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 18, 2026

Shook said they would take the Steelers and Jaguars to win outright on the road, still expects the Chargers to beat the Raiders, and thinks Baltimore's run game will turn the Saints game into a double-digit Ravens win.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 4calls landed4 misses · all settled
0Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#67Nick Shook’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Nick Shook said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I would take the Steelers straight up. The line doesn't even matter to me in this game.
Nick Shook, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode
2026 Week 2 Picks with Nick Shook
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21
  1. 1Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos“I think that they have the formula to beat this team... I would probably take them straight up, even though they're going to mile high.”
  2. 2Los Angeles Chargers to beat Raiders“It still feels to me like it's a game that the Chargers win.”
  3. 3Baltimore Ravens to beat Saints“I really worry about that defense stopping the run... that's what's gonna tip that game into a double-digit win for the ravens I think.”
  4. 4Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Patriots“I would take the Steelers straight up. The line doesn't even matter to me in this game, just because of how well their defense performed in week one.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos1Game Outcome PicksBroncos 20–130100−194
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Raiders2Game Outcome PicksRaiders 26–14000
Baltimore Ravens to beat Saints3Game Outcome PicksSaints 24–17000
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Patriots4Game Outcome PicksPatriots 20–30100−194
4 calls · 4 misses · all settled050

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

4 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 4 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos

    What happenedBroncos 20–13Jaguars at Broncos
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.94difficulty−194skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5 · underdog pick, Jaguars 43%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    −194
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles Chargers

    Los Angeles Chargers to beat Raiders

    What happenedRaiders 26–14Raiders at Chargers
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Chargers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Chargers about 3 in 4 (73%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    LV
    score:
    26-14
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LAC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LAC
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksBaltimore Ravens

    Baltimore Ravens to beat Saints

    What happenedSaints 24–17Saints at Ravens
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Ravens by 8.5 · favorite pick, Ravens about 3 in 4 (76%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    NO
    score:
    24-17
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    BAL
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh Steelers

    Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Patriots

    What happenedPatriots 20–3Steelers at Patriots
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.94difficulty−194skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Patriots by 4.5 · underdog pick, Steelers about 1 in 3 (34%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    3-20
    skill:
    −194
    they picked:
    PIT
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?
  5. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    0naive 50

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