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Simon HunterFeb 25, 2025

Simon says Jackson Dart, as a pocket passer in today's NFL, will likely be drafted late in the first round rather than as a top-ten pick.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Went 25What happenedsettled
50A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
—Skillafter difficulty

What Simon Hunter said

he's probably gonna be back towards the end of the first round just because he's not this young stud athlete
Our reading: Jaxson Dart to be picked “towards the end of the first round” (picks 1–32)
The episode
The Favorites - NFL Combine, Draft and Analytics with Cynthia Frelund
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidFeb 25, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
towards the end of the first round (picks 1–32)They said
25What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. Mock Draft PicksJaxson Dart

    Jaxson Dart to be picked “towards the end of the first round” (picks 1–32)

    What happenedWent 25
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Jaxson Dart
    season:
    2024
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    25
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    towards the end of the first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

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