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Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 8, 2025

Eisen agreed Josh Allen repeats as MVP and Buffalo takes the AFC's No. 1 seed, endorsed the Chargers as the AFC West team to beat and best week-one AFC team, called Derrick Henry a first-ballot Hall of Famer, said the Chiefs could start 1-5, argued the Giants should turn to rookie Jackson Dart, and pegged Emeka Egbuka as the current Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 7calls landed2 hits · 5 misses · all settled
25.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls
22.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
7 of 7Settlednone still waiting
#38Rich Eisen’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Eisen said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
So to sit here and say, this is an overreaction that he's gonna repeat as the MVP. And the Bills as the one seed... this is not an overreaction.
Rich Eisen, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode
NFL Week 1: Bills' Comeback, Rodgers Revived, Russ Cooked, Who's AFC's Best & More
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidSep 8, 2025
  2. GradedAug 13–17, 2026
  1. 1Buffalo Bills to take the top seed“And the Bills as the one seed One seed... this is not an overreaction.”
  2. 2Los Angeles Chargers to win the division“The chargers are the team to beat in the AFC West. Oh, I agree with that.”
  3. 3Josh Allen to win MVP“So to sit here and say, this is an overreaction that he's gonna repeat as the MVP... this is not an overreaction.”
  4. 4Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs“one team that looked like a wild card team on on Friday night in Brazil”
  5. 5Emeka Egbuka to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“right now, your your offensive rookie of the year is Ibuka. Is Ibuka. Yeah. In Tampa who had two touchdowns”
  6. 6Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart“I've been saying that for a month and a half, and now I am saying put the rookie in there.”
  7. 7New York Giants to finish with 5 wins“Now they're playing against a team that's gonna win, like, five games.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed1Seeding, Byes and Home Field—000
Los Angeles Chargers to win the division2Division Winners—000
Josh Allen to win MVP3Award PicksMatthew Stafford won000
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs4Playoff PicksMissed the playoffs000
Emeka Egbuka to win Offensive Rookie of the Year5Award PicksTetairoa McMillan won000
Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart6Depth Chart CallsNo. 110091.67+16.67
New York Giants to finish with 5 wins7Season Win Totals48065+30
7 calls · 2 hits · 5 misses · all settled25.722.4

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

7 checkable claims — 2 award picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick, 1 season win total and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 25.7 out of 100, against 22.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to take the top seed

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    checked as:
    the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
    actual tier:
    visitor
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where they finished last season (host)
    weeks in the season:
    18
    claimed seed:
    1
    claimed tier:
    bye
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Division WinnersLos Angeles Chargers

    Los Angeles Chargers to win the division

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    LAC
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo Bills

    Josh Allen to win MVP

    What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Josh Allen
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Josh Allen
    season:
    2025
    who won:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Playoff PicksKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs

    What happenedMissed the playoffs
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    KC
    skill:
    0
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive guess said:
    yes
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    made the playoffs:
    no
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Award PicksEmeka EgbukaTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Emeka Egbuka to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

    What happenedTetairoa McMillan woncalled Emeka Egbuka
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    offensive_rookie_of_the_year
    naive:
    the naive pick was Jayden Daniels, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Emeka Egbuka
    season:
    2025
    who won:
    Tetairoa McMillan
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Depth Chart CallsJaxson DartNew York Giants

    Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart

    What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards
    100Hit · naive 91.67
    100this call91.67a naive guess8.33better than naive2difficulty+16.67skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    NYG
    skill:
    16.67
    player:
    Jaxson Dart
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    91.67
    position:
    QB
    naive slot:
    2
    actual slot:
    1
    difficulty:
    2
    measured by:
    passing yards
    the naive guess:
    no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted slot:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  7. 7Season Win TotalsNew York Giants

    New York Giants to finish with 5 wins

    What happened4called 5
    80Hit · naive 65
    80this call65a naive guess15better than naive2difficulty+30skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NYG
    naive:
    5.75
    skill:
    30
    what happened:
    4
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    5
    accuracy:
    80
    baseline:
    65
    they said:
    5
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  8. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once

    25.7naive 22.4

Who this take is about

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