Sarah LongwellSep 5, 2024
Asked point-blank who wins in November, Longwell predicted Kamala Harris, arguing the anti-Trump coalition is the biggest coalition in American politics and will reassemble.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Honestly with Bari WeissHear the original
0Miss · out of 100
Donald Trump wonWhat happenedcalled Kamala Harris
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty
What Sarah Longwell said
The the biggest coalition in American politics is an anti Trump coalition, and I think we're gonna see it come back together in 2024.
- Where it was said
- Honestly with Bari Weiss
- The episode
- The Republicans Voting for Kamala
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 5, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Kamala to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
What happenedDonald Trump woncalled Kamala Harris0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.08difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 61
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.