nthony Darelle "Booger" McFarland· Feb 25, 2026
McFarland projected Ohio State's Arbel Reese to measure in at roughly 6-4 and 240-245 pounds at the combine, and argued Cincinnati and Trey Hendrickson will go their separate ways this offseason.
“He's probably gonna come in six four, two hundred and forty, two hundred and forty five pounds.”
said on air, transcribed by us · NFL Live (podcast) · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 2 combine measurements and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 97.9 out of 100, against 43.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Trade and Signing CallsTrey HendricksonFeb 25, 2026
Trey Hendrickson to move
“So I think it's best for both parties to move on. Trey Hendrickson to go in separate ways and for Cincinnati to start playing some of those young guys.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Trey Hendrickson
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- CIN
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- reported:
- signed → BAL
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Combine MeasurementsArvell ReeseFeb 25, 2026
Arvell Reese to post six four at the combine
“He's probably gonna come in six four, two hundred and forty, two hundred and forty five pounds.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 89.03+10.97 skillHow this was scored
- off:
- 0
- drill:
- height in
- naive:
- the average EDGE (75.79, from 149 results)
- scale:
- credit halves every 1.28 — one standard deviation for a EDGE
- skill:
- 10.97
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- result:
- 76
- season:
- 2025
- combine year:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 89.03
- predicted:
- 76
- sigmas out:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.
- Combine MeasurementsArvell ReeseFeb 25, 2026
Arvell Reese to post two hundred and forty, two hundred and forty five pounds at the combine
“He's probably gonna come in six four, two hundred and forty, two hundred and forty five pounds.”
Hit · 94Scored 93.83a naive guess scored 41.65+52.18 skillHow this was scored
- off:
- 1
- drill:
- weight lbs
- naive:
- the average EDGE (254.76, from 149 results)
- scale:
- credit halves every 10.89 — one standard deviation for a EDGE
- skill:
- 52.18
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- result:
- 241
- season:
- 2025
- combine year:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 93.83
- baseline:
- 41.65
- predicted:
- 240
- sigmas out:
- 0.09
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Combine results via Pro-Football-Reference.com.
What others said about the same people
- Patricia TrainaRoster Spot Calls · Arvell ReeseHit · 100Traina projects the Giants' initial 53-man roster position by position, naming who makes the team and who lands on the practice squad, including keeping Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Evan Neal (with a possible trade), Dalen Cambre over Braxton Berrios, Lucas Patrick as backup center, and Dominic Zvada as the kicker.
- Danny ParkinsTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Parkins predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, Trey Hendrickson signs in Tampa, Michael Penix Jr. wins Atlanta's QB competition, Jared Wilson takes over at center in New England, Mike Evans reaches 1,000 yards, and the Bears lose Byard and Brisker.
- Carmen VitaliTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonHit · 100Vitally pegs Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles as probably a top-five pick in this year's draft, and expects the Bengals to lose Trey Hendrickson in free agency.
- Peter SchragerTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonHit · 100Schrager expects the 49ers and Trent Williams to work out a contract solution keeping him in San Francisco, and would be surprised if the Bengals tagged Trey Hendrickson or signed him to a new big deal, suggesting he finishes his career elsewhere.
- Manti Te'oTrade and Signing Calls · Trey HendricksonMiss · 0Te'o predicted Trey Hendrickson would return to Cincinnati, while arguing the Bengals' contract priority should be their two wide receivers.
- Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks · Arvell ReeseHit · 88A seven-round Jets mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, assigning specific prospects to each of New York's nine picks, and calling Brandon Cisse a likely top-50 selection.
More combine measurements
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Field YatesCombine Measurements · Brenen ThompsonClose · 67Yates pegged David Bailey as a top-four pick, called Jeremiah Love clearly the best running back in the class with a draft range from No. 3 overall to the Chiefs at No. 9, put Karnell Tate atop his receiver board, projected Jordan Tyson as a top-15 pick, and expected Brennan Thompson to run in the 4.2s. He also sees both Miami's Mauigoa and Utah's Spencer Fano taken inside the top 15, with Mauigoa having a chance to be the first offensive lineman off the board.
- James HarrisonCombine Measurements · Zachariah BranchMiss · 0The co-host known as Debo, who identifies himself as James Harrison, predicts Caleb Downs runs in the 4.42-4.43 range at the combine and rides the under on Zachariah Branch's 40 time, citing Branch's high school speed.
- Bruce FeldmanCombine Measurements · Cole PaytonHit · 100Feldman discussed Fernando Mendoza as the likely No. 1 overall pick to the Raiders, praised Kenyon Sadik and Sunny Styles as combine standouts, projected Ty Simpson as a late-first-round pick, and pegged Cole Peyton for the fourth-to-fifth round range.
- Daniel JeremiahCombine Measurements · Justin JeffersonMiss · 27On Move the Sticks, Daniel Jeremiah gave his views on the 2026 draft class: he set his board (Jeremiah Love as the second-best player, Malinoi 12th, Fano 14th), ranked the top edge rushers Bailey-Reese-Bain, projected draft ranges for several prospects, and forecast measurables for a few players.
- Ayrton OstleyCombine Measurements · Gabe JacasHit · 100Ostley predicts Mississippi State receiver Brandon/Brennan Thompson runs the fastest 40-yard dash at the combine, expects Mac Jones to be traded to the Vikings, and offers combine performance expectations for several prospects.
- Albert BreerCombine Measurements · Kenyon SadiqClose · 65Breer says he would be stunned if Fernando Mendoza did not go No. 1 overall to the Raiders, and he flags Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq as a combine standout who could run in the 4.3s and jump 40 inches.