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Willie ColonJan 17, 2026

Colon expects the Seahawks' defensive line to make it a long day for Brock Purdy, picks the Patriots over the Texans, and says the Bears can't win if Davante Adams shows up.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Game Outcome PicksThe callsettled
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Willie Colon said

So I expect this defensive line by the Seattle Seahawks and company to put the nails to Purdy, man.
Our reading: New England Patriots to beat Texans
Where it was said
First Things First (podcast)
The episode
Divisional Round preview, Most to Gain & Lose, Mahomes comeback, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidJan 16
  2. GradedAug 13

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots to beat Texans

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3 · favorite pick, Patriots 62%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    16-28
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
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