Skip to main content

Mike Renner#28 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 6, 2026

Renner picked the same AFC bracket as JP except with the Texans reaching the Super Bowl as a fifth seed, had the Packers beating the Bears in the NFC, and leaned Rams over Seahawks in the NFC Championship and the Rams as Super Bowl champions. They also gave a full post-season mock draft of picks 1-18.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast)Hear the original

13 of 29calls landed13 hits · 5 close calls · 11 misses · 4 waiting
54.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 29 calls
41.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
29 of 33Settled4 still waiting
#28Mike Renner’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Mike Renner said

So because of all that, give me the Rams.
Mike Renner, the lead quote
The episode
NFL Playoff Bracket Predictions + Ranking Head Coach Openings + NEW 2026 Mock Draft!
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidJan 6
  2. GradedAug 13–Oct 11

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

33 checkable claims — 18 mock draft picks, 9 game outcome picks, 2 conference champions, 2 positional finishes, 1 combine measurement and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 39 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

29 of 33 have settled so far, averaging 54.5 out of 100, against 41.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game Outcome Picks3 hits · 1 close call · 5 missesShow ▸
  1. Houston Texans to beat Jags

    “and then Jags losing to the Texans. Texans making it as a wild card fifth seed to the Super Bowl.”

    Houston Texans

    66.67Close

    66.67 − 22.92 naive = 43.75 × 1 difficulty = +43.75 skill

    How this was scored
    note:
    these two did not meet in the postseason, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
    skill:
    43.75
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    ceiling:
    66.67
    accuracy:
    66.67
    baseline:
    22.92
    opponent:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 8 won a game there
    weeks in the season:
    18
    right opponent:
    no
    weeks left when called:
    0
    picked won aplayoff game:
    yes
    picked reached the playoffs:
    yes
    opponent reached the playoffs:
    yes
    Think this is wrong?
  2. Los Angeles Rams to beat Panthers

    “and I think the Rams beat the Panthers”

    Los Angeles Rams

    100Hit

    100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill

    Closing line (Jan 10): Rams by 10 · favorite pick, Rams about 4 in 5 (81%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    34-31
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CAR
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  3. Los Angeles Rams to beat Seahawks

    “And then so it's seagulls, Rams. I have it being the NFC championship game... But if I had to pick, I lean with you, I lean the Rams.”

    Los Angeles Rams

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1 difficulty = −100 skill

    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  4. Green Bay Packers to beat Bears

    “I think the Packers beat the Bears... So I think the Packers win that one.”

    Green Bay Packers

    0Miss

    0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1 difficulty = −100 skill

    Closing line (Jan 10): Packers by 2.5 · favorite pick, Packers 55%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    27-31
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Pats

    “Jags over Pats”

    Jacksonville Jaguars

    33.33Miss

    33.33 − 22.92 naive = 10.41 × 1 difficulty = +10.41 skill

    How this was scored
    note:
    these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
    skill:
    10.41
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2025
    ceiling:
    66.67
    accuracy:
    33.33
    baseline:
    22.92
    opponent:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 8 won a game there
    weeks in the season:
    18
    right opponent:
    no
    weeks left when called:
    0
    picked won aplayoff game:
    no
    picked reached the playoffs:
    yes
    opponent reached the playoffs:
    yes
    Think this is wrong?
  6. New England Patriots to beat Chargers

    “So that would be Pats over Chargers”

    New England Patriots

    100Hit

    100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill

    Closing line (Jan 11): Patriots by 3.5 · favorite pick, Patriots 64%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    3-16
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bills

    “Jags over Bills”

    Jacksonville Jaguars

    0Miss

    0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill

    Closing line (Jan 11): Jaguars by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 47%, Jaguars 53%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    27-24
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  8. Houston Texans to beat Steelers

    “Texans over Steelers in the wild card round”

    Houston Texans

    100Hit

    100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill

    Closing line (Jan 12): Texans by 3 · favorite pick, Texans 58%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    HOU
    score:
    30-6
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  9. Houston Texans to beat Broncos

    “divisional round, Texans over Broncos”

    Houston Texans

    0Miss

    0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    18-15
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
Mock Draft Picks10 hits · 3 close calls · 4 misses · 1 waitingShow ▸
  1. Matt Moore to be picked at number 2

    “and then Dante Moore of Oregon to the Jets. I don't see that changing as long as those guys declare.”

    Matt MooreNew York Jets

    Went undraftedmocked at 2
    0Miss

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Matt Moore
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; later signed with KC
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  2. Kenyon Sadiq to be picked at number 11

    “I'd get to 11 through 15 here. I have the Miami Dolphins going Kenyan, Saddiq, the Oregon tight end.”

    Kenyon SadiqMiami Dolphins

    Went 16mocked at 11
    80.52Hit

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Kenyon Sadiq
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    16
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    80.52
    predicted pick:
    11
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  3. Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12

    “Sonny Styles, the line back from Ohio State going to Dallas at 12.”

    Sonny StylesDallas Cowboys

    Went 7mocked at 12
    80.52Hit

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Sonny Styles
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    7
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    80.52
    predicted pick:
    12
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  4. Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7

    “I have the commanders going carnal tape, the Ohio State wide receiver at number seven.”

    Carnell TateWashington Commanders

    Went 4mocked at 7
    87.81Hit

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Carnell Tate
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    87.81
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    4
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    87.81
    predicted pick:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  5. Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 5

    “and then Keltrick Falk, the Auburn edge slash d t, and I have him going there to be a DT more so to the New York Giants.”

    Keldric FaulkNew York Giants

    Went 31mocked at 5
    32.42Miss

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Keldric Faulk
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    32.42
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    31
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    32.42
    predicted pick:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  6. Rueben Bain to be picked at number 9

    “Reuben Bain, the Miami defensive end going to the Kansas City Chiefs.”

    Rueben BainKansas City Chiefs

    Went 15mocked at 9
    77.11Close

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Rueben Bain
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    77.11
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    15
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    77.11
    predicted pick:
    9
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  7. Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10

    “And then last number 10 here. Caleb Downs, Ohio State safety is the Cincinnati Bengals.”

    Caleb DownsCincinnati Bengals

    Went 11mocked at 10
    95.76Hit

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Caleb Downs
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    11
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  8. Makai Lemon to be picked at number 16

    “16 Jets, McKay Lemann, USC wide receiver. I love this fit for forever.”

    Makai LemonNew York Jets

    Went 20mocked at 16
    84.09Hit

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Makai Lemon
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    84.09
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    20
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    84.09
    predicted pick:
    16
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  9. Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 13

    “Jordan Tyson, the Arizona statewide receiver going to the Rams at 13.”

    Jordyn TysonLos Angeles Rams

    Went 8mocked at 13
    80.52Hit

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Jordyn Tyson
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    8
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    80.52
    predicted pick:
    13
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  10. Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 8

    “Jeremiah Love going to the saints. No real explanation necessary there. It's Kellen Moore as your head coach.”

    Jeremiyah LoveNew Orleans Saints

    Went 3mocked at 8
    80.52Hit

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Jeremiyah Love
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    80.52
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    80.52
    predicted pick:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  11. Trevor Goosby to be picked at number 6

    “It's get six through 10 where the Browns... Trevor Goosby, offense tackle Texas to me.”

    Trevor GoosbyCleveland Browns

    Went undraftedmocked at 6
    0Miss

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Trevor Goosby
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  12. David Bailey to be picked at number 3

    “At number three... I have David Bailey, the Texas Tech edge going to the Cardinals.”

    David BaileyArizona Cardinals

    Went 2mocked at 3
    95.76Hit

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    David Bailey
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  13. Spencer Fano to be picked at number 15

    “And then Spencer Fanon, the Utah offensive tackle going to the Bucks at 15”

    Spencer FanoTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Went 9mocked at 15
    77.11Close

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Spencer Fano
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    77.11
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    9
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    77.11
    predicted pick:
    15
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  14. Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 17

    “17, I have Mansoor Delaine, the LSU quarterback going to the Lions.”

    Mansoor DelaneDetroit Lions

    Went 6mocked at 17
    62.09Close

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Mansoor Delane
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    62.09
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    6
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    62.09
    predicted pick:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  15. Jermaine McCrory to be picked at number 18

    “And I have Jermaine McCrory, the Tennessee corner going to Minnesota.”

    Jermaine McCroryMinnesota Vikings

    Went undraftedmocked at 18
    0Miss

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Jermaine McCrory
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  16. Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    “Top five picks. I have it going. Fernando Mendoza from Indiana to the Raiders”

    Fernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders

    Went 1mocked at 1
    100Hit

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  17. Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4

    “Arbel Reese, the Ohio State linebacker slash edge going fourth to the titans”

    Arvell ReeseTennessee Titans

    Went 5mocked at 4
    95.76Hit

    mock order 74.29 − 50 for a shuffle = 24.29 × 1 difficulty = +24.29 skill

    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    24.29
    player:
    Arvell Reese
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    5
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    74.29
    Think this is wrong?
  18. Francisco Mauigoa to be picked at number 14

    “Francis Maui, Noah, Miami, offensive tackle going to the Ravens at 14.”

    Francisco MauigoaBaltimore Ravens

    —Waiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

Conference Champions1 close call · 1 missShow ▸
  1. Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl

    “I lean the Rams. I think the offense at full strength is just too dangerous.”

    Los Angeles Rams

    NE and SEA wonpicked LAR
    50Close

    50 − 0 naive = 50 × 1 difficulty = +50 skill

    How this was scored
    skill:
    50
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE, SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    yes
    Think this is wrong?
  2. Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl

    “Texans making it as a wild card fifth seed to the Super Bowl.”

    Houston Texans

    NE and SEA wonpicked HOU
    0Miss

    0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill

    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE, SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no
    Think this is wrong?
Super Bowl Picks1 missShow ▸
  1. Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl

    “the winner of this game is the Super Bowl champion... So because of all that, give me the Rams.”

    Los Angeles Rams

    SEA won itpicked LAR
    0Miss

    0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill

    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
Positional Finishes2 waitingShow ▸
  1. Jordyn Tyson to finish top 20 at his position, by receiving yards

    “you watch Carnel Tate's tape, you watch Jordan Tyson's tape... They they might never be top 10, top five wide receivers in the NFL... but they are top 20.”

    Jordyn Tyson

    —Waiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  2. Carnell Tate to finish top 20 at his position, by receiving yards

    “you watch Carnel Tate's tape, you watch Jordan Tyson's tape, and you just know those are number one wide receivers in the NFL... but they are top 20.”

    Carnell Tate

    —Waiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

Combine Measurements1 waitingShow ▸
  1. Sonny Styles to post probably gonna run a four four at the combine

    “I guess six five, two forty and probably gonna run a four four.”

    Sonny Styles

    —Waiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

Others on the same people

More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.