Cynthia Frelund· Sep 26, 2025
Per Rosenthal, Frelund's model picks the Jets over the Dolphins, the Packers over the Cowboys (her top confidence pick), and the Commanders to win in Atlanta.
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
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3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 16.7 out of 100, against 83.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 26, 2025
New York Jets to beat Miami
“Again, she has the Jets and the Packers Jets plus two and a half.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-183 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIA
- score:
- 21-27
- skill:
- -183
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 26, 2025
Green Bay Packers to beat Cowboys
“me and Cynthia and her computer model are agreeing... these are our favorite confidence picks of the week, which is Packers minus seven.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- tie
- score:
- 40-40
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- Game Outcome PicksWashington CommandersSep 26, 2025
Washington Commanders to beat Atlanta
“So Cynthia's third pick, by the way, the Washington Commanders... She has them as a road favorite in Atlanta.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-183 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- ATL
- score:
- 27-34
- skill:
- -183
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 15
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Kevin WildesGame Outcome Picks · New York JetsMiss · 0For upset alert Wildes took the Broncos to beat the Rams straight up in Denver and added the Jets to beat the Lions straight up.
- David HarrisonGame Outcome Picks · Washington CommandersHit · 100Harrison lays out a path for the Washington Commanders to exceed their 7.5-win total, identifying eight specific games he projects them to win: home vs. Seattle (Week 3), vs. Indianapolis in London (Week 4), a sweep of the Giants (Weeks 5 and 10), at Arizona (Week 12), at Tennessee (Week 13), vs. Atlanta (Week 15) and vs. Dallas (Week 18). He also says the Bengals (Week 11) and Texans (Week 14) games are winnable.
- Mike KadlickScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 7Kadlick expects an ugly, low-scoring Thursday night game at Lambeau Field, with Green Bay beating Atlanta 10–7 to move to 2–1 while the Falcons drop to 0–3 in Michael Penix Jr.'s return.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 24Dubin picks the Packers to beat the Falcons comfortably on Thursday Night Football, predicting a 23-13 Green Bay win.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 17Dajani gave final-score predictions for eight Week 3 games, picking the Packers, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Buccaneers (upset), Ravens, Broncos (upset) and Eagles to win.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.