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Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 24, 2026

Dubin picks the Packers to beat the Falcons comfortably on Thursday Night Football, predicting a 23-13 Green Bay win.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

24Miss · out of 100
Falcons 35–14What happenedcalled Packers by 10 · lost by 21
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
23.81This callout of 100
#60Jared Dubin’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jared Dubin said

Pick: Packers 23, Falcons 13
Our reading: Green Bay Packers 23 — Falcons 13
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Previewing Packers vs. Falcons: Atlanta seeks first win of season as Michael Penix Jr. returns on 'TNF'
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidSep 24
  2. PlayedSep 24
  3. GradedSep 25

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 23.8 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsGreen Bay Packers

    Green Bay Packers 23 — Falcons 13

    What happenedFalcons 35–14called Packers by 10 · lost by 21
    23.81Miss · naive 0
    23.81this call0a naive guess23.81better than naive1.89difficulty+45skill

    Closing line (Sep 24): Packers by 4.5, total 43.5 · this 23–13 calls a bigger Packers win (by 10) and fewer points (36).

    How this was scored
    score:
    35-14
    skill:
    45
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    23.81
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    21
    weeks left when called:
    16
    naive home margin:
    −0.45
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

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